New Orleans Saints

Zaire Mitchell-Paden Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Nov 9, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Zaire Mitchell-Paden has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 0 of his last 3 decided games (0%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Florida Atlantic
Experience: 3 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.0 REC TD · our line

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OutZaire Mitchell-Paden isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Mitchell-Paden was dealing with a knee injury at the end of last season that landed him on injured reserve in January, but he appears to be back in football shape with minicamp underway. He'll be competing for a depth spot as an in-line tight end on the Saints' 53-man roster for 2026.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 100% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line95supports it

Projection

0.0 REC TD

L5 0.0 · L10 0.0 · med 0.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 53 games

0%over

0 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–56%

Last 103 games

0%over

0 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–56%

Last 203 games

0%over

0 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–56%

Season3 games

0%over

0 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 0%–56%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	0%	0/3
	0%	0/3
	0%	0/3
	0%	0/3

Last 3 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/2Low

Away0%0/1Low

Days since last game

3+ days0%0/2Low

Last matchup — @ CAR

Nov 9, 2025

19thof 32 in REC TD allowed to tight ends

CAR allows 0.2 REC TD per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 39 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 3 games, Zaire Mitchell-Paden has gone over 0.5 REC TD 0 of 3 decided times (0%) — versus 0% across the full season. CAR has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 19th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.2 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been variable (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 0%.