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Edmonton OilersAlec Regula
#75 · D · 19 games
Stats updated: Jan 21, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 0.7 SOG · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutAlec Regula isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Undisclosed
- Est. return:
- Nov 21, 2026
Regula continues to work his way back from offseason surgery that caused him to miss the entire preseason. With the shift to LTIR, the 26-year-old defenseman can be expected to miss at least the next nine games, having already been out of action for one, though it could be longer, considering the team hasn't provided a specific update.
Verdict
vs 0.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 57% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line57neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
0.9 SOG(×0.99 context)
L5 0.8 · L10 0.6 · med 0.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2019 games
58%over
11 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 36%–77%Season19 games
58%over
11 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 36%–77%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 58% | 11/19 | |
| 16% | 3/19 | ||
| 0% | 0/19 | ||
| 0% | 0/19 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home58%7/12Low
Away57%4/7Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)100%1/1Low
1 day33%2/6Low
2 days75%3/4Low
3+ days57%4/7Low
Next matchup — vs NYR
Nov 10, 2026
6thof 32 in SOG allowed to defensemen
NYR allows 1.5 SOG per game to defensemen (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 62 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Alec Regula has gone over 0.5 SOG 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 58% across the full season. NYR has been a favorable matchup for defensemen this season, allowing the 6th-most SOG of 32 teams (1.5 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 58%.