Oklahoma City Thunder

Jalen Williams Turnovers

Stats updated: Apr 8, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jalen Williams has gone over 2.5 TOV in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: 2022 · Rd 1, Pick 12
College: Santa Clara
Country: USA
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTurnovers · season avg 2.2 TOV · our line

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Game-Time DecisionConfirm Jalen Williams's status before the game.

Injury:: Left Hamstring Strain

Williams aggravated his left hamstring injury in Game 2 and missed the next three contests before returning for Thursday's Game 6 loss. The star forward played just 10 minutes and took only one shot, chipping in one point and one assist. He's now being ruled out for Game 7 due to injury management, so his next chance to play will come in the NBA FInals if the Thunder win Saturday. With Williams sidelined, Jared McCain, Kenrich Williams and Cason Wallace will likely see increased run in Game 7.

Verdict

vs 2.5 TOVTurnovers

Cool underFireFactor 29/100· model 65% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)83supports it

Projection vs line65supports it

Consistency23argues against it

Projection

2.1 TOV(×0.94 context)

L5 2.0 · L10 2.3 · med 2.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 1.0 · ceil 3.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Game-time decision — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Last 2020 games

40%over

8 over · 12 under

Medium confidence95% CI 22%–61%

Season21 games

38%over

8 over · 13 under

Medium confidence95% CI 21%–59%

Alternate lines — Turnovers (TOV)

TOV over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TOV line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	95%	20/21
	76%	16/21
2.5Current	38%	8/21
	10%	2/21
	0%	0/21
	0%	0/21

Last 20 games — TOV per game vs. line 2.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 2.5 TOV by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home25%3/12Medium

Away56%5/9Low

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)75%3/4Low

1 day33%3/9Low

2 days0%0/2Low

3+ days40%2/5Low

Last matchup — @ LAC

Apr 8, 2026

14thof 30 in TOV allowed to guards

LAC allows 1.6 TOV per game to guards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 197 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Jalen Williams has gone over 2.5 TOV 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 38% across the full season. LAC has been a middling matchup for guards this season, allowing the 14th-most TOV of 30 teams (1.6 per game). His game-to-game TOV have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 38%.