Utah Jazz

Jaren Jackson Jr. Turnovers

Stats updated: Feb 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Jaren Jackson Jr. has gone over 2.5 TOV in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: 2018 · Rd 1, Pick 4
College: Michigan State
Country: USA
Experience: 8 seasons

Top reads — this player & matchup

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Ranked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.

Line

PrizePicksTurnovers · season avg 2.4 TOV · our line

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Game-Time DecisionConfirm Jaren Jackson Jr.'s status before the game.

Injury:: Left Knee Surgery

Jackson was traded from Memphis to Utah in February, though he appeared in only three regular-season games for the Jazz before undergoing surgery due to a growth in his left knee. The 2022-23 Defensive Player of the Year will look to make his presence felt on that end of the floor and anchor a now Kessler-less Jazz frontcourt. Jackson's two-way production will be crucial for a Utah team that's looking to return to playoff contention, and he hasn't averaged fewer than 18.6 points per game since the 2021-22 campaign, when he averaged 16.3 points per tilt for the Grizzlies.

Verdict

vs 2.5 TOVTurnovers

Cool underFireFactor 43/100· model 66% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)96supports it

Projection vs line66supports it

Consistency4argues against it

Projection

2.1 TOV(×1.00 context)

L5 1.6 · L10 2.4 · med 2.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 1.2 · ceil 3.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Game-time decision — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Last 1010 games

30%over

3 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%

Last 2020 games

40%over

8 over · 12 under

Medium confidence95% CI 22%–61%

Season32 games

34%over

11 over · 21 under

Medium confidence95% CI 20%–52%

Alternate lines — Turnovers (TOV)

TOV over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TOV line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	94%	30/32
	78%	25/32
2.5Current	34%	11/32
	19%	6/32
	9%	3/32
	3%	1/32

Last 20 games — TOV per game vs. line 2.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 2.5 TOV by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home31%4/13Medium

Away37%7/19Medium

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)50%1/2Low

1 day29%4/14Medium

2 days33%3/9Low

3+ days33%2/6Low

Last matchup — vs MIN

Feb 2, 2026

8thof 30 in TOV allowed to forwards

MIN allows 1.6 TOV per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 166 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Jaren Jackson Jr. has gone over 2.5 TOV 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 34% across the full season. MIN has been a favorable matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 8th-most TOV of 30 teams (1.6 per game). His game-to-game TOV have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

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Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 34%.