Minnesota Vikings

Aaron Jones Sr. Carries

Stats updated: Dec 25, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Aaron Jones Sr. has gone over 10.5 CAR in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: UTEP
Experience: 11 seasons

Line

PrizePicksCarries · season avg 12.2 CAR · our line

Save this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it

OutAaron Jones Sr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Jones is coming off a 2025 regular season in which he carried the ball 132 times for 548 yards and two touchdowns while adding 28 catches on 41 targets for 199 yards and a score in 12 games. With Mason (758 rushing yards and six TDs on 159 carries plus 14 catches for 51 yards in 16 contests) still around, another RB timeshare -- one that favors Jones in PPR formats -- looms in 2026, with Claiborne a bigger threat to Jones' snaps on passing downs.

Verdict

vs 10.5 CARCarries

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 76% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral

Projection vs line76supports it

Consistency37argues against it

Projection

15.6 CAR(×1.10 context)

L5 14.2 · L10 12.2 · med 10.5

Consistency

Variable

floor 8.8 · ceil 16.4

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

80%over

4 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Season10 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Alternate lines — Carries (CAR)

CAR over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate CAR line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	90%	9/10
	80%	8/10
	50%	5/10
10.5Current	50%	5/10
	50%	5/10
	40%	4/10
	40%	4/10

Last 10 games — CAR per game vs. line 10.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 10.5 CAR by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home75%3/4Low

Away33%2/6Low

Days since last game

3+ days56%5/9Low

Last matchup — vs DET

Dec 25, 2025

14thof 32 in CAR allowed to running backs

DET allows 11.5 CAR per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 30 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Aaron Jones Sr. has gone over 10.5 CAR 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. DET has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 14th-most CAR of 32 teams (11.5 per game). His game-to-game CAR have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 4.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.