Minnesota Vikings

Aaron Jones Sr. Receiving Yards

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Aaron Jones Sr. has gone over 19.5 REC YDS in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: UTEP
Experience: 11 seasons

Line

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PrizePicksReceiving Yards · season avg 15.3 REC YDS · PrizePicks line

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QuestionableConfirm Aaron Jones Sr.'s status before the game.

Injury:: Not Specified Knee Not Specified

After the Vikings placed Jordan Mason (thumb) on IR last week, Jones was the team's unquestioned lead runner during a 9-3 win at Chicago this past Sunday, taking 23 carries for 105 yards. However, with Kevin Seifert of ESPN.com reporting that Jones isn't a sure thing for a Week 3 road matchup with the Buccaneers due to a knee injury, his status is up in the air for Sunday. At the moment, DeeJay Dallas and rookie Demond Claiborne represent Minnesota's healthy RBs on the active roster.

Verdict

vs 19.5 REC YDSReceiving Yards

No readFireFactor 3/100· model 33% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)63supports it

Projection vs line48neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

10.6 REC YDS(×1.08 context)

L5 9.8 · L10 12.0 · med 10.5

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 1.6 · ceil 22.0

Matchup

small sample

Scored against this payout variant's ~35% breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for its payout, not a coin flip. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice. Questionable — confirm status before acting.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

30%over

3 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%

Last 2012 games

42%over

5 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–68%

Season12 games

42%over

5 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–68%

Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)

REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC YDS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	42%	5/12
	42%	5/12
	42%	5/12
19.5Current	42%	5/12
	33%	4/12
	33%	4/12
	17%	2/12

Last 12 games — REC YDS per game vs. line 19.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 19.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home20%1/5Low

Away57%4/7Low

Days since last game

3+ days36%4/11Low

Next matchup — @ TB

Sep 27, 2026

2ndof 32 in REC YDS allowed to running backs

TB allows 26.3 REC YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Aaron Jones Sr. has gone over 19.5 REC YDS 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 42% across the full season. TB has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 2nd-most REC YDS of 32 teams (26.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 12.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.

Over oddsOver only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 42%.