Minnesota Vikings

Aaron Jones Sr. Rushing TDs

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Aaron Jones Sr. has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: UTEP
Experience: 11 seasons

Line

PrizePicksRushing TDs · season avg 0.3 RUSH TD · PrizePicks line

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OutAaron Jones Sr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Wet and windy conditions at Soldier Field put a damper on both teams' passing attacks, but Jones was able to keep the Minnesota offense moving on the ground. The veteran back saw a big workload with Jordan Mason (thumb) on IR, but Jones did briefly leave the game to tend to a minor knee injury in the fourth quarter. Assuming the knee doesn't linger, he figures to be busy again in a Week 3 road trip to Tampa Bay.

Verdict

vs 0.5 RUSH TDRushing TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 72% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line72supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.4 RUSH TD(×1.07 context)

L5 0.4 · L10 0.3 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.8

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

30%over

3 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%

Last 2012 games

25%over

3 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 9%–53%

Season12 games

25%over

3 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 9%–53%

Alternate lines — Rushing TDs (RUSH TD)

RUSH TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate RUSH TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	25%	3/12
	0%	0/12
	0%	0/12
	0%	0/12

Last 12 games — RUSH TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 RUSH TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home60%3/5Low

Away0%0/7Medium

Days since last game

3+ days27%3/11Low

Next matchup — @ TB

Sep 27, 2026

12thof 32 in RUSH TD allowed to running backs

TB allows 0.3 RUSH TD per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Aaron Jones Sr. has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 25% across the full season. TB has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 12th-most RUSH TD of 32 teams (0.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

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Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 25%.