Minnesota Vikings

Aaron Jones Sr. Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Dec 25, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Aaron Jones Sr. has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 1 of his last 10 decided games (10%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: UTEP
Experience: 11 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.1 REC TD · our line

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OutAaron Jones Sr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Jones is coming off a 2025 regular season in which he carried the ball 132 times for 548 yards and two touchdowns while adding 28 catches on 41 targets for 199 yards and a score in 12 games. With Mason (758 rushing yards and six TDs on 159 carries plus 14 catches for 51 yards in 16 contests) still around, another RB timeshare -- one that favors Jones in PPR formats -- looms in 2026, with Claiborne a bigger threat to Jones' snaps on passing downs.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 94% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line94supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.0 REC TD(×1.10 context)

L5 0.0 · L10 0.1 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Last 1010 games

10%over

1 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–40%

Last 2010 games

10%over

1 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–40%

Season10 games

10%over

1 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 2%–40%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	10%	1/10
	0%	0/10
	0%	0/10
	0%	0/10

Last 10 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/4Low

Away17%1/6Low

Days since last game

3+ days0%0/9Medium

Last matchup — vs DET

Dec 25, 2025

28thof 32 in REC TD allowed to running backs

DET allows 0.0 REC TD per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 30 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Aaron Jones Sr. has gone over 0.5 REC TD 1 of 10 decided times (10%) — versus 10% across the full season. DET has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 28th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.0 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 10%.