Minnesota Vikings

Aaron Jones Sr. Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Aaron Jones Sr. has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 0 of his last 5 decided games (0%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: UTEP
Experience: 11 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.0 REC TD · our line

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OutAaron Jones Sr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Jones shook off the knee injury that had knocked him out of a Week 7 win over the Colts to head into Sunday without a designation. However, the veteran finished with a season low in carries and rushing yards. Jones has just 13 combined rush attempts -- a number partly influenced by the aforementioned early exit against Indianapolis -- in the two games since Jordan Mason returned from injured reserve, and it remains to be seen if the modest role will persist in a Week 9 home matchup against the Bills on Monday night, Nov. 9.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 100% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line95supports it

Matchup0argues against it

Projection

0.0 REC TD(×1.09 context)

L5 0.0 · L10 0.0 · med 0.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Last 105 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Last 205 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Season5 games

0%over

0 over · 5 under

Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	0%	0/5
	0%	0/5
	0%	0/5
	0%	0/5

Last 5 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/2Low

Away0%0/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days0%0/4Low

Next matchup — vs BUF

Nov 10, 2026

2ndof 32 in REC TD allowed to running backs

BUF allows 0.2 REC TD per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 13 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 5 games, Aaron Jones Sr. has gone over 0.5 REC TD 0 of 5 decided times (0%) — versus 0% across the full season. BUF has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 2nd-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.2 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been variable (σ ≈ 0.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 0%.