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Seattle SeahawksAJ Barner
#88 · TE · 6' 6" · 251 lb · 16 games
Stats updated: Feb 8, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Michigan
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 35.2 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutAJ Barner isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Barner's availability to open camp is a positive early sign after he missed offseason workouts due to a pair of undisclosed surgeries. The 2024 fourth-rounder is looking to defend his role as the Seahawks' clear top tight end in a room that also includes second-year option Elijah Arroyo. Barner started all 17 regular-season games in 2025, totaling 52 catches (on 68 targets) for 519 yards and six touchdowns.
Verdict
vs 29.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 48% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line48neutral
Consistency10argues against it
Projection
31.0 REC YDS(×0.90 context)
L5 34.6 · L10 35.0 · med 31.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 18.0 · ceil 53.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2016 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Season16 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63% | 10/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 29.5Current | 50% | 8/16 | |
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 44% | 7/16 |
Situational splits
Over 29.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%3/6Low
Away50%5/10Low
Days since last game
3+ days53%8/15Low
Last matchup — @ NE
Feb 8, 2026
11thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
NE allows 28.2 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 39 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, AJ Barner has gone over 29.5 REC YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. NE has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 11th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (28.2 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 19.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.