Seattle Seahawks

AJ Barner Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

AJ Barner has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Michigan
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.4 REC TD · our line

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OutAJ Barner isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Barner was on the field for 56 of the team's 70 total offensive snaps, but he left his mark on the game in the third quarter, punching the ball in from one yard out on a direct snap. The tight end has yet to find his stride as pass-catcher this season, reeling in all three of his targets for 21 yards over the team's first two games.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 68% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)98supports it

Projection vs line68supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.4 REC TD(×0.92 context)

L5 0.6 · L10 0.3 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

30%over

3 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%

Last 2015 games

33%over

5 over · 10 under

Medium confidence95% CI 15%–58%

Season15 games

33%over

5 over · 10 under

Medium confidence95% CI 15%–58%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	33%	5/15
	7%	1/15
	0%	0/15
	0%	0/15

Last 15 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%2/6Low

Away33%3/9Low

Days since last game

3+ days29%4/14Medium

Next matchup — @ WSH

Sep 27, 2026

1stof 32 in REC TD allowed to tight ends

WSH allows 2.0 REC TD per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, AJ Barner has gone over 0.5 REC TD 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 33% across the full season. WSH has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 1st-most REC TD of 32 teams (2.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.