Seattle Seahawks

AJ Barner Targets

Stats updated: Feb 8, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

AJ Barner has gone over 3.5 TGT in 7 of his last 10 decided games (70%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Michigan
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 4.5 TGT · our line

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OutAJ Barner isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Barner's availability to open camp is a positive early sign after he missed offseason workouts due to a pair of undisclosed surgeries. The 2024 fourth-rounder is looking to defend his role as the Seahawks' clear top tight end in a room that also includes second-year option Elijah Arroyo. Barner started all 17 regular-season games in 2025, totaling 52 catches (on 68 targets) for 519 yards and six touchdowns.

Verdict

vs 3.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 48% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it

Projection vs line48neutral

Consistency23argues against it

Projection

3.7 TGT(×0.90 context)

L5 3.8 · L10 4.9 · med 4.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 3.0 · ceil 6.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

70%over

7 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%

Last 2016 games

56%over

9 over · 7 under

Medium confidence95% CI 33%–77%

Season16 games

56%over

9 over · 7 under

Medium confidence95% CI 33%–77%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	16/16
	100%	16/16
	100%	16/16
3.5Current	56%	9/16
	31%	5/16
	25%	4/16
	13%	2/16

Last 16 games — TGT per game vs. line 3.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 3.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home67%4/6Low

Away50%5/10Low

Days since last game

3+ days60%9/15Medium

Last matchup — @ NE

Feb 8, 2026

12thof 32 in TGT allowed to tight ends

NE allows 3.7 TGT per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 39 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, AJ Barner has gone over 3.5 TGT 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 56% across the full season. NE has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 12th-most TGT of 32 teams (3.7 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 56%.