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Seattle SeahawksAJ Barner
#88 · TE · 6' 6" · 251 lb · 15 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 15 of these 15 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Michigan
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 35.8 REC YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 22.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsHot overFireFactor 54/100· model 68% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line68supports it
Consistency9argues against it
Projection
31.7 REC YDS(×0.92 context)
L5 34.6 · L10 35.0 · med 31.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 17.2 · ceil 53.2
Matchup
NR
small sample
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2015 games
73%over
11 over · 4 under
Medium confidence95% CI 48%–89%Season15 games
73%over
11 over · 4 under
Medium confidence95% CI 48%–89%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 73% | 11/15 | ||
| 73% | 11/15 | ||
| 73% | 11/15 | ||
| 22.5Current | 73% | 11/15 | |
| 73% | 11/15 | ||
| 67% | 10/15 | ||
| 67% | 10/15 |
Situational splits
Over 22.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%4/6Low
Away78%7/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days71%10/14Medium
Next matchup — @ WSH
Sep 27, 2026
2ndof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
WSH allows 60.0 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, AJ Barner has gone over 22.5 REC YDS 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 73% across the full season. WSH has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 2nd-most REC YDS of 32 teams (60.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 19.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 22.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
FanDuel-113
-5.8% EV
Best Under
Caesars-112
-5.4% EV
Model vs market (over)+18.2%
Our model puts the over at 68.2% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (22.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 73%.