
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Andrei Iosivas has gone over 4.5 FS in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
Iosivas' lone target from Joe Burrow took place early in the third quarter and set up Evan McPherson to connect on a 51-yard field goal on the next play to put the Bengals up 10-3. Iosivas' 32 offensive snaps were third-most among wide receivers, but he is very clearly behind Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Chase Brown and Mike Gesicki in the pecking order for passes from Burrow. Iosivas will take a 3-19-0 receiving line (on four targets) into the Bengals' Week 3 road clash against the Steelers on Sept. 27.
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 91% | 10/11 | ||
| 75% | 9/12 | ||
| 58% | 7/12 | ||
| 4.5Current | 50% | 6/12 | |
| 42% | 5/12 | ||
| 42% | 5/12 | ||
| 42% | 5/12 |
Over 4.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
PIT allows 4.8 FS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughOver his last 10 games, Andrei Iosivas has gone over 4.5 FS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. PIT has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 31st-most FS of 32 teams (4.8 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 5.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
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Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.