Indianapolis Colts

Anthony Richardson Sr. Completions

Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Anthony Richardson Sr. has gone over 1.5 CMP in 1 of his last 2 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Florida
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksCompletions · season avg 1.5 CMP · our line

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OutAnthony Richardson Sr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

As his final line indicates, Richardson did little in mop-up duty, but James Boyd of The Athletic reports that head coach Shane Steichen has pledged a top-to-bottom evaluation ahead of a Week 9 home matchup against the Cowboys next Sunday. With Indianapolis at 2-6 and both Jonathan Taylor and Josh Downs reportedly on the trade block, Steichen may ultimately conclude there's little to lose in giving Richardson, the 2023 fourth-overall pick, another run at the starting job he's struggled with previously.

Verdict

vs 1.5 CMPCompletions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 40% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral

Projection vs line40neutral

Consistency44neutral

Matchup0argues against it

Projection

1.4 CMP(×0.90 context)

L5 1.5 · L10 1.5 · med 1.5

Consistency

Variable

floor 1.2 · ceil 1.8

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 52 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 102 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 202 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Season2 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Alternate lines — Completions (CMP)

CMP over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate CMP line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	2/2
1.5Current	50%	1/2
	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2
	0%	0/2

Last 2 games — CMP per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 CMP by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/1Low

Away100%1/1Low

Days since last game

3+ days100%1/1Low

Next matchup — vs DAL

Nov 8, 2026

30thof 32 in CMP allowed to quarterbacks

DAL allows 17.3 CMP per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 10 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 2 games, Anthony Richardson Sr. has gone over 1.5 CMP 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. DAL has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 30th-most CMP of 32 teams (17.3 per game). His game-to-game CMP have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.