Indianapolis Colts

Anthony Richardson Sr. Rushing Yards

Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Anthony Richardson Sr. has gone over 1.5 RUSH YDS in 1 of his last 2 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Florida
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksRushing Yards · season avg 2.0 RUSH YDS · our line

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OutAnthony Richardson Sr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

As his final line indicates, Richardson did little in mop-up duty, but James Boyd of The Athletic reports that head coach Shane Steichen has pledged a top-to-bottom evaluation ahead of a Week 9 home matchup against the Cowboys next Sunday. With Indianapolis at 2-6 and both Jonathan Taylor and Josh Downs reportedly on the trade block, Steichen may ultimately conclude there's little to lose in giving Richardson, the 2023 fourth-overall pick, another run at the starting job he's struggled with previously.

Verdict

vs 1.5 RUSH YDSRushing Yards

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 63% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral

Projection vs line63supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup100supports it

Projection

2.3 RUSH YDS(×1.08 context)

L5 2.0 · L10 2.0 · med 2.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.8 · ceil 3.2

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 52 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 102 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Last 202 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Season2 games

50%over

1 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 9%–91%

Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)

RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate RUSH YDS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	50%	1/2
1.5Current	50%	1/2
	50%	1/2
	50%	1/2
	0%	0/2

Last 2 games — RUSH YDS per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/1Low

Away100%1/1Low

Days since last game

3+ days100%1/1Low

Next matchup — vs DAL

Nov 8, 2026

4thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to quarterbacks

DAL allows 23.1 RUSH YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 10 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 2 games, Anthony Richardson Sr. has gone over 1.5 RUSH YDS 1 of 2 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. DAL has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 4th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (23.1 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.