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Tampa Bay BuccaneersBaker Mayfield
#6 · QB · 6' 1" · 215 lb · 17 games
Stats updated: Jan 3, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oklahoma
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 217.2 PASS YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutBaker Mayfield isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Mayfield wanted to get a deal done before training camp but apparently never came close. He did suggest his agent could remain in contact with the team while Mayfield turns his attention to the practice field and his teammates. "If you've waited this long to take care of your franchise quarterback, that's too bad," said Mayfield. "Because it's only going to get worse from here. I'm going to have a really big year."
Verdict
vs 248.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 67% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)94supports it
Projection vs line67supports it
Consistency38argues against it
Projection
214.1 PASS YDS(×0.98 context)
L5 218.6 · L10 192.6 · med 183.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 155.0 · ceil 276.2
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2017 games
35%over
6 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 17%–59%Season17 games
35%over
6 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 17%–59%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 35% | 6/17 | ||
| 35% | 6/17 | ||
| 35% | 6/17 | ||
| 248.5Current | 35% | 6/17 | |
| 35% | 6/17 | ||
| 35% | 6/17 | ||
| 35% | 6/17 |
Situational splits
Over 248.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%4/8Low
Away22%2/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days38%6/16Medium
With a teammate out
How this PASS YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Bucky Irving out-4.5 PASS YDS when he sits
Without (7g)
214.6 PASS YDS
43% over 248.5
With (10g)
219.1 PASS YDS
30% over 248.5
Kenny Gainwell out+7.1 PASS YDS when he sits
Without (8g)
221.0 PASS YDS
38% over 248.5
With (9g)
213.9 PASS YDS
33% over 248.5
Last matchup — vs CAR
Jan 3, 2026
25thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
CAR allows 195.5 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 20 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Baker Mayfield has gone over 248.5 PASS YDS 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 35% across the full season. CAR has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 25th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (195.5 per game). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 80.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 35%.