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Tampa Bay BuccaneersBaker Mayfield Rushing Yards
Stats updated: Jan 3, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Baker Mayfield has gone over 16.5 RUSH YDS in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oklahoma
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 22.5 RUSH YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutBaker Mayfield isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Mayfield wanted to get a deal done before training camp but apparently never came close. He did suggest his agent could remain in contact with the team while Mayfield turns his attention to the practice field and his teammates. "If you've waited this long to take care of your franchise quarterback, that's too bad," said Mayfield. "Because it's only going to get worse from here. I'm going to have a really big year."
Verdict
vs 16.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 60% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)61supports it
Projection vs line60neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
24.4 RUSH YDS(×0.98 context)
L5 27.8 · L10 22.4 · med 23.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 3.4 · ceil 39.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2017 games
53%over
9 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 31%–74%Season17 games
53%over
9 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 31%–74%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 12/17 | ||
| 65% | 11/17 | ||
| 59% | 10/17 | ||
| 16.5Current | 53% | 9/17 | |
| 53% | 9/17 | ||
| 53% | 9/17 | ||
| 47% | 8/17 |
Situational splits
Over 16.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%4/8Low
Away56%5/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%8/16Medium
With a teammate out
How this RUSH YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Bucky Irving out-17.1 RUSH YDS when he sits
Without (7g)
12.4 RUSH YDS
29% over 16.5
With (10g)
29.5 RUSH YDS
70% over 16.5
Kenny Gainwell out-19.1 RUSH YDS when he sits
Without (8g)
12.4 RUSH YDS
38% over 16.5
With (9g)
31.4 RUSH YDS
67% over 16.5
Last matchup — vs CAR
Jan 3, 2026
30thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to quarterbacks
CAR allows 12.3 RUSH YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 20 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Baker Mayfield has gone over 16.5 RUSH YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 53% across the full season. CAR has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 30th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (12.3 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 16.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.
More Baker Mayfield research
Baker Mayfield — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Mayfield Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Mayfield Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Mayfield Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.