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Tampa Bay BuccaneersBaker Mayfield Rushing Yards
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Baker Mayfield has gone over 17.5 RUSH YDS in 8 of his last 10 decided games (80%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oklahoma
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 23.2 RUSH YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutBaker Mayfield isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
There had been buzz surrounding Mayfield's matchup against the team that drafted him first overall in 2018, but the veteran signal-caller couldn't deliver a revenge victory. Mayfield looked surprisingly out of sorts most of the afternoon against a Browns defense that had been dominated by the Jaguars in Week 1, and after an extensive weather delay, he went just 1-for-4 for six yards once play resumed at the two-minute warning with the Buccaneers at Cleveland's 28-yard line and needing a touchdown. Mayfield added another turnover on his late first-quarter interception as well, putting him firmly in the spotlight heading into a Week 3 home date against an aggressive Vikings defense next Sunday.
Verdict
vs 17.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 57% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)81supports it
Projection vs line57neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
23.3 RUSH YDS(×0.89 context)
L5 31.0 · L10 28.3 · med 29.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 8.2 · ceil 39.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
80%over
8 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 49%–94%Last 2019 games
58%over
11 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 36%–77%Season19 games
58%over
11 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 36%–77%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68% | 13/19 | ||
| 63% | 12/19 | ||
| 58% | 11/19 | ||
| 17.5Current | 58% | 11/19 | |
| 58% | 11/19 | ||
| 53% | 10/19 | ||
| 53% | 10/19 |
Situational splits
Over 17.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home56%5/9Low
Away60%6/10Low
Days since last game
3+ days56%10/18Medium
Next matchup — vs MIN
Sep 27, 2026
10thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to quarterbacks
MIN allows 21.0 RUSH YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Baker Mayfield has gone over 17.5 RUSH YDS 8 of 10 decided times (80%) — versus 58% across the full season. MIN has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 10th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (21.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 15.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 58%.
More Baker Mayfield research
Baker Mayfield — full profile→
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Mayfield Completions→
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Mayfield Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
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Defense vs Position→
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NFL Heat Check→
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Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.