Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield Passing TDs

Stats updated: Jan 3, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Baker Mayfield has gone over 1.5 PASS TD in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Oklahoma
Experience: 10 seasons

Line

PrizePicksPassing TDs · season avg 1.5 PASS TD · our line

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OutBaker Mayfield isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Mayfield wanted to get a deal done before training camp but apparently never came close. He did suggest his agent could remain in contact with the team while Mayfield turns his attention to the practice field and his teammates. "If you've waited this long to take care of your franchise quarterback, that's too bad," said Mayfield. "Because it's only going to get worse from here. I'm going to have a really big year."

Verdict

vs 1.5 PASS TDPassing TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 57% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it

Projection vs line57neutral

Consistency15argues against it

Projection

1.4 PASS TD(×0.98 context)

L5 1.4 · L10 1.3 · med 1.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 1.0 · ceil 2.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

30%over

3 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%

Last 2017 games

47%over

8 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 26%–69%

Season17 games

47%over

8 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 26%–69%

Alternate lines — Passing TDs (PASS TD)

PASS TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate PASS TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	94%	16/17
1.5Current	47%	8/17
	12%	2/17
	0%	0/17
	0%	0/17

Last 17 games — PASS TD per game vs. line 1.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 1.5 PASS TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%4/8Low

Away44%4/9Low

Days since last game

3+ days44%7/16Medium

With a teammate out

How this PASS TD line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Bucky Irving out-0.2 PASS TD when he sits

Without (7g)

1.4 PASS TD

43% over 1.5

With (10g)

1.6 PASS TD

50% over 1.5

Kenny Gainwell out

Without (8g)

1.5 PASS TD

50% over 1.5

With (9g)

1.6 PASS TD

44% over 1.5

Last matchup — vs CAR

Jan 3, 2026

27thof 32 in PASS TD allowed to quarterbacks

CAR allows 1.1 PASS TD per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 20 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Baker Mayfield has gone over 1.5 PASS TD 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 47% across the full season. CAR has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 27th-most PASS TD of 32 teams (1.1 per game). His game-to-game PASS TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.