Atlanta Falcons

Bijan Robinson Receptions

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Bijan Robinson has gone over 4.5 REC in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Texas
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 4.8 REC · our line

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OutBijan Robinson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Robinson's three-year pact includes $51 million guaranteed and makes him the highest-paid running back in NFL history. With a new deal in place, Robinson, who hadn't been participating in training camp practices, is slated to rejoin his teammates on the field. With Robinson's contract situation settled, attention now turns to fellow elite fantasy back Jahmyr Gibbs, who has been a training camp hold-in as he seeks an extension with the Lions.

Verdict

vs 4.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 58% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)67supports it

Projection vs line58neutral

Consistency31argues against it

Projection

5.0 REC(×1.06 context)

L5 5.0 · L10 4.6 · med 4.5

Consistency

Variable

floor 3.0 · ceil 6.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2016 games

56%over

9 over · 7 under

Medium confidence95% CI 33%–77%

Season16 games

56%over

9 over · 7 under

Medium confidence95% CI 33%–77%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	16/16
	81%	13/16
	69%	11/16
4.5Current	56%	9/16
	38%	6/16
	19%	3/16
	13%	2/16

Last 16 games — REC per game vs. line 4.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 4.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home43%3/7Low

Away67%6/9Low

Days since last game

3+ days53%8/15Low

With a teammate out

How this REC line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Tua Tagovailoa out+1.4 REC when he sits

Without (11g)

5.2 REC

64% over 4.5

With (5g)

3.8 REC

40% over 4.5

Drake London out-0.7 REC when he sits

Without (4g)

4.3 REC

50% over 4.5

With (12g)

4.9 REC

58% over 4.5

Last matchup — vs NO

Jan 4, 2026

28thof 32 in REC allowed to running backs

NO allows 1.6 REC per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 35 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Bijan Robinson has gone over 4.5 REC 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 56% across the full season. NO has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 28th-most REC of 32 teams (1.6 per game). His game-to-game REC have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 2.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 56%.