Atlanta Falcons

Bijan Robinson Targets

Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Bijan Robinson has gone over 6.5 TGT in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Texas
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 6.3 TGT · our line

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OutBijan Robinson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Considering the Falcons' air attack posed next to no threat to the Panthers defense while being helmed by Cooper Rush and Jack Strand, Robinson managed to put together a serviceable, albeit scoreless, day. The ultra-talented back didn't have a robust enough opportunity on the ground thanks to a game script that increasingly turned against the run, but Robinson's 4.5 yards per carry was more than respectable considering the circumstances. Either Michael Penix (knee) or Tua Tagovailoa (oblique) appear to have a chance to return for Thursday's Week 3 road matchup against the Packers, a development that would theoretically offer Robinson the opportunity to see some less crowded defensive fronts.

Verdict

vs 6.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 51% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral

Projection vs line51neutral

Consistency22argues against it

Projection

6.7 TGT(×1.04 context)

L5 7.2 · L10 6.3 · med 6.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 3.4 · ceil 9.2

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2018 games

50%over

9 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 29%–71%

Season18 games

50%over

9 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 29%–71%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	78%	14/18
	72%	13/18
	56%	10/18
6.5Current	50%	9/18
	39%	7/18
	22%	4/18
	22%	4/18

Last 18 games — TGT per game vs. line 6.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 6.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home38%3/8Low

Away60%6/10Low

Days since last game

3+ days47%8/17Medium

Next matchup — @ GB

Sep 25, 2026

29thof 32 in TGT allowed to running backs

GB allows 1.8 TGT per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Bijan Robinson has gone over 6.5 TGT 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. GB has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 29th-most TGT of 32 teams (1.8 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 3.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.