Atlanta Falcons

Bijan Robinson Rushing TDs

Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Bijan Robinson has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD in 2 of his last 7 decided games (29%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Texas
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksRushing TDs · season avg 0.6 RUSH TD · our line

Save this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it

OutBijan Robinson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

It was a bizarre afternoon overall in very rainy conditions in Tampa Bay, and Robinson managed to salvage his day with a solid rushing yardage total. Robinson's tally on the ground was actually his best since Week 5, although his streak of games without a rushing touchdown extended to four. Robinson is still averaging 5.2 yards per carry on the season and now is up to 983 yards from scrimmage and five total touchdowns heading into next Sunday's Week 9 matchup against the Bengals in Madrid.

Verdict

vs 0.5 RUSH TDRushing TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 68% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line68supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup50neutral

Projection

0.5 RUSH TD(×1.07 context)

L5 0.8 · L10 0.6 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.6

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 107 games

29%over

2 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 8%–64%

Last 207 games

29%over

2 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 8%–64%

Season7 games

29%over

2 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 8%–64%

Alternate lines — Rushing TDs (RUSH TD)

RUSH TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate RUSH TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	29%	2/7
	29%	2/7
	0%	0/7
	0%	0/7

Last 7 games — RUSH TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 RUSH TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/3Low

Away50%2/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days33%2/6Low

Next matchup — vs CIN

Nov 8, 2026

14thof 32 in RUSH TD allowed to running backs

CIN allows 0.4 RUSH TD per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 13 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 7 games, Bijan Robinson has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD 2 of 7 decided times (29%) — versus 29% across the full season. CIN has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 14th-most RUSH TD of 32 teams (0.4 per game). His game-to-game RUSH TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 29%.