Denver Broncos

Bo Nix Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Jan 17, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Bo Nix has gone over 16.5 FS in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Oregon
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 18.5 FS · our line

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OutBo Nix isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Nix had been limited during the team's offseason program while working his way back from ankle surgery and a follow-up procedure, but as expected, he was ready for training camp's first practice and looked sharp during red-zone work in the process. As the coming campaign approaches, Nix's fantasy prospects should be bolstered by the fact that Denver added Jaylen Waddle, via a trade with the Dolphins this offseason, to a WR corps that returns Courtland Sutton, giving the team a notable 1-2 punch at the position.

Verdict

vs 16.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 59% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral

Projection vs line59neutral

Consistency34argues against it

Projection

19.5 FS(×1.03 context)

L5 20.3 · L10 17.3 · med 16.8

Consistency

Variable

floor 12.9 · ceil 24.9

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2018 games

50%over

9 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 29%–71%

Season18 games

50%over

9 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 29%–71%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	67%	12/18
	67%	12/18
	67%	12/18
16.5Current	50%	9/18
	44%	8/18
	39%	7/18
	39%	7/18

Last 18 games — FS per game vs. line 16.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 16.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%5/10Low

Away50%4/8Low

Days since last game

3+ days53%9/17Medium

With a teammate out

How this FS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

J.K. Dobbins out-0.1 FS when he sits

Without (8g)

18.4 FS

50% over 16.5

With (10g)

18.6 FS

50% over 16.5

Last matchup — vs BUF

Jan 17, 2026

25thof 32 in FS allowed to quarterbacks

BUF allows 13.9 FS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 20 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Bo Nix has gone over 16.5 FS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. BUF has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 25th-most FS of 32 teams (13.9 per game). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 7.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.