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Denver BroncosBo Nix Rushing Yards
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Bo Nix has gone over 17.5 RUSH YDS in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oregon
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 19.6 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutBo Nix isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Nix and the Broncos' offense started the game off in worrisome fashion, seemingly carrying over the malaise of their Week 1 Monday night loss to the Chiefs. Denver was still facing a 13-6 deficit heading into the fourth quarter, but Nix rallied the troops with a seven-yard touchdown pass to Nate Adkins and a key 17-yard strike to Evan Engram midway through the fourth quarter on what turned out to be the game-winning drive. The victory pulled the Broncos to 1-1 and gave Nix's early-season stats a serious boost heading into a Week 3 home showdown against the Rams next Sunday night.
Verdict
vs 17.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 47% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)45neutral
Projection vs line47neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
16.6 RUSH YDS(×0.93 context)
L5 25.6 · L10 18.8 · med 13.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 6.8 · ceil 33.6
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season20 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 12/20 | ||
| 55% | 11/20 | ||
| 50% | 10/20 | ||
| 17.5Current | 50% | 10/20 | |
| 45% | 9/20 | ||
| 45% | 9/20 | ||
| 40% | 8/20 |
Situational splits
Over 17.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home36%4/11Low
Away67%6/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days47%9/19Medium
Next matchup — vs LAR
Sep 28, 2026
15thof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to quarterbacks
LAR allows 15.0 RUSH YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Bo Nix has gone over 17.5 RUSH YDS 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 50% across the full season. LAR has been a middling matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 15th-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (15.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 15.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 16.5 RUSH YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
FanDuel-114
-6.1% EV
Best Under
Caesars-113
-5.8% EV
Model vs market (over)-3.0%
Our model puts the over at 47.0% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (16.5 RUSH YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Bo Nix research
Bo Nix — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Nix Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Nix Completions→
Completions hit rates and trends.
Nix Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.