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Denver BroncosBo Nix Completions
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Bo Nix has gone over 23.5 CMP in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oregon
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Completions · season avg 22.6 CMP · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutBo Nix isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Nix and the Broncos' offense started the game off in worrisome fashion, seemingly carrying over the malaise of their Week 1 Monday night loss to the Chiefs. Denver was still facing a 13-6 deficit heading into the fourth quarter, but Nix rallied the troops with a seven-yard touchdown pass to Nate Adkins and a key 17-yard strike to Evan Engram midway through the fourth quarter on what turned out to be the game-winning drive. The victory pulled the Broncos to 1-1 and gave Nix's early-season stats a serious boost heading into a Week 3 home showdown against the Rams next Sunday night.
Verdict
vs 23.5 CMPCompletionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 67% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)48neutral
Projection vs line67supports it
Consistency63supports it
Projection
20.4 CMP(×0.93 context)
L5 21.0 · L10 24.0 · med 25.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 17.8 · ceil 27.2
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season20 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Alternate lines — Completions (CMP)
CMP over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65% | 13/20 | ||
| 65% | 13/20 | ||
| 55% | 11/20 | ||
| 23.5Current | 50% | 10/20 | |
| 40% | 8/20 | ||
| 35% | 7/20 | ||
| 25% | 5/20 |
Situational splits
Over 23.5 CMP by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home55%6/11Low
Away44%4/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days47%9/19Medium
Next matchup — vs LAR
Sep 28, 2026
4thof 32 in CMP allowed to quarterbacks
LAR allows 25.0 CMP per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 1 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Bo Nix has gone over 23.5 CMP 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 50% across the full season. LAR has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 4th-most CMP of 32 teams (25.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game CMP have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 5.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Bo Nix research
Bo Nix — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Nix Passing TDs→
Passing TDs hit rates and trends.
Nix Rushing Yards→
Rushing Yards hit rates and trends.
Nix Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.