
#0 · RB · 6' 1" · 235 lb · 3 games
Stats updated: Sep 29, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
In terms of physical measurements, Allen is perhaps the closest thing to Derrick Henry among NFL running backs, now pushing 250 pounds on a 6-foot-1 frame. The concern is that Allen was already a far cry from Henry in terms of speed and agility when playing at his (relatively) lighter weight of 238-240 pounds. The 22-year-old looks like a DE or OLB at first glance, and he told reporters Wednesday that his body-fat percentage is at an all-time low. Allen also said he's back at full strength after undergoing season-ending surgery on an MCL injury last fall. He's the youngest player from the 2024 draft class -- younger than most incoming rookies, in fact -- and is again positioned to compete with fellow 2024 draft pick Isaiah Davis for backup work behind long-time starter Breece Hall. It's also possible Allen and Davis have distinct roles, with the former more focused on power rushing and the latter more geared toward passing downs.
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 2/3 | ||
| 67% | 2/3 | ||
| 67% | 2/3 | ||
| 25.5Current | 67% | 2/3 | |
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 33% | 1/3 |
Over 25.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
MIA allows 46.7 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 38 player-games
ToughOver his last 3 games, Braelon Allen has gone over 25.5 RUSH YDS 2 of 3 decided times (67%) — versus 67% across the full season. MIA has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 22nd-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (46.7 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 9.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.