New York Jets

Braelon Allen Receptions

Stats updated: Sep 29, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Braelon Allen has gone over 0.5 REC in 1 of his last 3 decided games (33%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Wisconsin
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 0.7 REC · our line

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OutBraelon Allen isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

In terms of physical measurements, Allen is perhaps the closest thing to Derrick Henry among NFL running backs, now pushing 250 pounds on a 6-foot-1 frame. The concern is that Allen was already a far cry from Henry in terms of speed and agility when playing at his (relatively) lighter weight of 238-240 pounds. The 22-year-old looks like a DE or OLB at first glance, and he told reporters Wednesday that his body-fat percentage is at an all-time low. Allen also said he's back at full strength after undergoing season-ending surgery on an MCL injury last fall. He's the youngest player from the 2024 draft class -- younger than most incoming rookies, in fact -- and is again positioned to compete with fellow 2024 draft pick Isaiah Davis for backup work behind long-time starter Breece Hall. It's also possible Allen and Davis have distinct roles, with the former more focused on power rushing and the latter more geared toward passing downs.

Verdict

vs 0.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 59% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)99supports it

Projection vs line59neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.7 REC

L5 0.7 · L10 0.7 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.2

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 53 games

33%over

1 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%

Last 103 games

33%over

1 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%

Last 203 games

33%over

1 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%

Season3 games

33%over

1 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	33%	1/3
	33%	1/3
	0%	0/3
	0%	0/3

Last 3 games — REC per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/1Low

Away50%1/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%1/2Low

Last matchup — @ MIA

Sep 29, 2025

17thof 32 in REC allowed to running backs

MIA allows 2.0 REC per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 38 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 3 games, Braelon Allen has gone over 0.5 REC 1 of 3 decided times (33%) — versus 33% across the full season. MIA has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 17th-most REC of 32 teams (2.0 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.