New York Jets

Braelon Allen Targets

Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Braelon Allen has gone over 0.5 TGT in 2 of his last 4 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Wisconsin
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 0.8 TGT · our line

Save this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it

OutBraelon Allen isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Allen failed to secure his lone target in the pass game. With Breece Hall past his groin issue, he operated as the clear RB1 in a workhorse role, rushing 22 times for 102 yards and one touchdown while adding two catches for 16 yards. Hall out-snapped Allen 39 to 27, cementing the former as an RB2 with RB1 upside for fantasy, especially if the Jets can get into positive game scripts like they had in Tennessee on Sunday. Allen is an upper-tier fantasy bench stash at the position.

Verdict

vs 0.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 50% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral

Projection vs line50neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.7 TGT(×0.92 context)

L5 0.8 · L10 0.8 · med 0.5

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.4

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.

Last 54 games

50%over

2 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%

Last 104 games

50%over

2 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%

Last 204 games

50%over

2 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%

Season4 games

50%over

2 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	50%	2/4
	25%	1/4
	0%	0/4
	0%	0/4

Last 4 games — TGT per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/1Low

Away67%2/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days67%2/3Low

Next matchup — vs GB

Sep 20, 2026

31stof 32 in TGT allowed to running backs

GB allows 0.5 TGT per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Tough

The read

Over his last 4 games, Braelon Allen has gone over 0.5 TGT 2 of 4 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. GB has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 31st-most TGT of 32 teams (0.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.