Loading…
Jacksonville JaguarsBrian Thomas Jr.
#7 · WR · 6' 2" · 209 lb · 13 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 12 of these 13 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- LSU
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 53.9 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutBrian Thomas Jr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Thomas' inefficient afternoon saw him mirror his stat line from Week 1. The 2024 first-round pick's start to the new season has been somewhat worrisome considering he often underwhelmed in 2025 while playing in head coach Liam Coen's offense for the first time. Thomas should continue to see plenty of opportunity, but it remains to be seen how he'll fare against a second straight tough secondary in that of the Patriots during a Week 3 home matchup next Sunday.
Verdict
vs 49.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 50% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)60supports it
Projection vs line50neutral
Consistency33argues against it
Projection
51.6 REC YDS(×0.99 context)
L5 56.2 · L10 58.6 · med 52.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 39.4 · ceil 74.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2013 games
46%over
6 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–71%Season13 games
46%over
6 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–71%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69% | 9/13 | ||
| 69% | 9/13 | ||
| 69% | 9/13 | ||
| 49.5Current | 46% | 6/13 | |
| 46% | 6/13 | ||
| 46% | 6/13 | ||
| 46% | 6/13 |
Situational splits
Over 49.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home63%5/8Low
Away20%1/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%6/12Low
Next matchup — vs NE
Sep 27, 2026
18thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
NE allows 41.8 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 6 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Brian Thomas Jr. has gone over 49.5 REC YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 46% across the full season. NE has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 18th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (41.8 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 21.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 46%.