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Jacksonville JaguarsBrian Thomas Jr.
#7 · WR · 6' 2" · 209 lb · 12 games
Stats updated: Jan 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- LSU
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 55.1 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutBrian Thomas Jr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
That's an assessment shared by Jamal St. Cyr of News4JAX, who noted that Thomas continues to stack good days and came up with the catch of training camp during Monday morning's session. After seeing a dip in production in 2025 following his 87-1,282-10 line as a rookie the year prior, the third-year pro profiles as a bounce-back candidate this coming season, while working alongside fellow WRs Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers and Travis Hunter, provided he continues to build positive momentum as the summer rolls along.
Verdict
vs 52.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 43% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)55neutral
Projection vs line43neutral
Consistency33argues against it
Projection
49.7 REC YDS(×0.90 context)
L5 59.2 · L10 60.1 · med 55.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 41.0 · ceil 77.2
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2012 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Season12 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 52.5Current | 50% | 6/12 | |
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 33% | 4/12 |
Situational splits
Over 52.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home63%5/8Low
Away25%1/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days55%6/11Low
With a teammate out
How this REC YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Jakobi Meyers out-2.3 REC YDS when he sits
Without (3g)
53.3 REC YDS
33% over 52.5
With (9g)
55.7 REC YDS
56% over 52.5
Last matchup — vs TEN
Jan 4, 2026
5thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
TEN allows 48.5 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 60 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Brian Thomas Jr. has gone over 52.5 REC YDS 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 50% across the full season. TEN has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 5th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (48.5 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 22.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.