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Jacksonville JaguarsBrian Thomas Jr.
#7 · WR · 6' 2" · 209 lb · 6 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- LSU
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 18.2 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutBrian Thomas Jr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Since delivering an 87-1,282-10 receiving line over 17 games as a rookie in 2024, Thomas' production has cratered in the ensuing two seasons. He's been firmly behind Parker Washington and Jakobi Meyers (hamstring/ankle) in terms of snap share through the Jaguars' first seven games and has drawn more than three targets in just one of those contests. Though the vertical threat Thomas presents might make him an appealing target for teams seeking a big-play receiver, it's unclear if the Jaguars have much motivation to move him. Despite his declining role within the Jacksonville offense, Thomas remains under contract through next season at relatively modest cap hits of $4.01 million in 2026 and $4.66 million in 2027.
Verdict
vs 14.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 45% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral
Projection vs line45neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
16.5 REC YDS(×1.12 context)
L5 13.8 · L10 18.2 · med 14.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 40.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 106 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Last 206 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Season6 games
50%over
3 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 4/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 14.5Current | 50% | 3/6 | |
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 50% | 3/6 | ||
| 33% | 2/6 |
Situational splits
Over 14.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home25%1/4Low
Away100%2/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days40%2/5Low
Next matchup — @ BAL
Nov 6, 2026
3rdof 32 in REC YDS allowed to wide receivers
BAL allows 56.3 REC YDS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 24 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 6 games, Brian Thomas Jr. has gone over 14.5 REC YDS 3 of 6 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. BAL has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 3rd-most REC YDS of 32 teams (56.3 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 16.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.