Jacksonville Jaguars

Brian Thomas Jr. Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Jan 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Brian Thomas Jr. has gone over 9.5 FS in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: LSU
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 10.9 FS · our line

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OutBrian Thomas Jr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

That's an assessment shared by Jamal St. Cyr of News4JAX, who noted that Thomas continues to stack good days and came up with the catch of training camp during Monday morning's session. After seeing a dip in production in 2025 following his 87-1,282-10 line as a rookie the year prior, the third-year pro profiles as a bounce-back candidate this coming season, while working alongside fellow WRs Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers and Travis Hunter, provided he continues to build positive momentum as the summer rolls along.

Verdict

vs 9.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 58% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it

Projection vs line58neutral

Consistency30argues against it

Projection

9.5 FS(×0.90 context)

L5 10.6 · L10 11.2 · med 9.6

Consistency

Variable

floor 7.9 · ceil 11.9

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2012 games

42%over

5 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–68%

Season12 games

42%over

5 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–68%

Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	92%	11/12
	91%	10/11
	64%	7/11
9.5Current	42%	5/12
	42%	5/12
	33%	4/12
	17%	2/12

Last 12 games — FS per game vs. line 9.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 9.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%4/8Low

Away25%1/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days45%5/11Low

With a teammate out

How this FS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Jakobi Meyers out-2.5 FS when he sits

Without (3g)

9.0 FS

33% over 9.5

With (9g)

11.5 FS

44% over 9.5

Last matchup — vs TEN

Jan 4, 2026

8thof 32 in FS allowed to wide receivers

TEN allows 10.2 FS per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 60 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Brian Thomas Jr. has gone over 9.5 FS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 42% across the full season. TEN has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 8th-most FS of 32 teams (10.2 per game). His game-to-game FS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 4.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 42%.