Jacksonville Jaguars

Brian Thomas Jr. Targets

Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Brian Thomas Jr. has gone over 2.5 TGT in 3 of his last 6 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: LSU
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 3.5 TGT · our line

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OutBrian Thomas Jr. isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Since delivering an 87-1,282-10 receiving line over 17 games as a rookie in 2024, Thomas' production has cratered in the ensuing two seasons. He's been firmly behind fellow wideouts Parker Washington and Jakobi Meyers (hamstring/ankle) in terms of snap share through the Jaguars' first seven games of 2026 and has drawn more than three targets in just one of those contests. Though the vertical threat Thomas presents makes him an appealing target for teams seeking a big-play receiver ahead of the deadline, Rapoport acknowledges that it's unclear if the Jaguars have much motivation to move him. Despite his declining role within the Jacksonville offense, Thomas remains under contract through next season at relatively modest cap hits of $4.01 million in 2026 and $4.66 million in 2027.

Verdict

vs 2.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 44% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)52neutral

Projection vs line44neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup25argues against it

Projection

3.4 TGT(×1.07 context)

L5 3.6 · L10 3.5 · med 2.5

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 2.0 · ceil 3.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 106 games

50%over

3 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%

Last 206 games

50%over

3 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%

Season6 games

50%over

3 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 19%–81%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	6/6
	100%	6/6
2.5Current	50%	3/6
	17%	1/6
	17%	1/6
	17%	1/6

Last 6 games — TGT per game vs. line 2.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 2.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%2/4Low

Away50%1/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days40%2/5Low

Next matchup — @ BAL

Nov 6, 2026

10thof 32 in TGT allowed to wide receivers

BAL allows 6.0 TGT per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 24 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 6 games, Brian Thomas Jr. has gone over 2.5 TGT 3 of 6 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. BAL has been a favorable matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 10th-most TGT of 32 teams (6.0 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.