Las Vegas Raiders

Brock Bowers Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Brock Bowers has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 4 of his last 6 decided games (67%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Georgia
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.8 REC TD · our line

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OutBrock Bowers isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Bowers scored a 12-yard touchdown in the first quarter and added a two-yard touchdown reception in the third quarter. He came just short of a third touchdown later in the third quarter, getting tackled just outside the goal line to set up a one-yard Kirk Cousins rushing TD. Bowers became the first tight end in NFL history to record at least 70 receiving yards in six consecutive appearances to begin a season. He'll try to extend his historic streak in Week 9 against the 49ers while continuing to work as the top target for Kirk Cousins.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 54% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)98supports it

Projection vs line54neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup25argues against it

Projection

0.7 REC TD(×0.82 context)

L5 0.8 · L10 0.8 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 106 games

67%over

4 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 30%–90%

Last 206 games

67%over

4 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 30%–90%

Season6 games

67%over

4 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 30%–90%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	67%	4/6
	17%	1/6
	0%	0/6
	0%	0/6

Last 6 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%1/3Low

Away100%3/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days60%3/5Low

Next matchup — @ SF

Nov 8, 2026

26thof 32 in REC TD allowed to tight ends

SF allows 0.1 REC TD per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 19 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 6 games, Brock Bowers has gone over 0.5 REC TD 4 of 6 decided times (67%) — versus 67% across the full season. SF has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 26th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.1 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.