Las Vegas Raiders

Brock Bowers Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Dec 21, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.

Brock Bowers has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Georgia
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.5 REC TD · our line

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QuestionableBrock Bowers isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Left Knee - Meniscus Surgery
Est. return:: Sep 27, 2026

Bowers missed the Raiders' first two games of the season after undergoing a meniscus trim procedure Sept. 8, but he took a major step forward in his recovery by returning to practice last Friday as a limited participant. The star tight end will aim to get in a full slate of practices during the upcoming week, and if he experiences no setbacks with his left knee in those sessions, he could be cleared to make his 2026 debut Sunday. In Bowers' absence over the previous two weeks, Michael Mayer has stepped in as the Raiders' top tight end and has produced a 9-55-0 line on 11 targets.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 70% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line70supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.5 REC TD(×0.91 context)

L5 0.4 · L10 0.5 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

30%over

3 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%

Last 2010 games

30%over

3 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%

Season10 games

30%over

3 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	30%	3/10
	10%	1/10
	10%	1/10
	0%	0/10

Last 10 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%2/6Low

Away25%1/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days33%3/9Low

Next matchup — @ NO

Sep 27, 2026

19thof 32 in REC TD allowed to tight ends

NO allows 0.0 REC TD per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Brock Bowers has gone over 0.5 REC TD 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 30% across the full season. NO has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 19th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 30%.