Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bucky Irving Rushing TDs

Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Bucky Irving has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD in 2 of his last 10 decided games (20%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Oregon
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

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PrizePicksRushing TDs · season avg 0.2 RUSH TD · PrizePicks line

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OutBucky Irving isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

With the Buccaneers already down by a 24-10 margin at halftime, Irving was deployed as as receiver almost as frequently as he was a ball carrier. Irving was efficient in either capacity, and he paid his first visit to the end zone of the season on a 10-yard scoring run late in the first half. Irving also finished as the team leader in rushing yards, receptions and targets, but his first-quarter fumble on his own 33-yard line after a seven-yard catch did lead to a Bengals touchdown. Irving should have a golden opportunity for a much more robust workload on the ground in Week 2, however, as the Browns pay a visit to Tampa Bay next Sunday.

Verdict

vs 0.5 RUSH TDRushing TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 22% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)0argues against it

Projection vs line34argues against it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.3 RUSH TD(×1.00 context)

L5 0.2 · L10 0.2 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

20%over

2 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%

Last 2011 games

18%over

2 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 5%–48%

Season11 games

18%over

2 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 5%–48%

Alternate lines — Rushing TDs (RUSH TD)

RUSH TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate RUSH TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	18%	2/11
	0%	0/11
	0%	0/11
	0%	0/11

Last 11 games — RUSH TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 RUSH TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home17%1/6Low

Away20%1/5Low

Days since last game

3+ days20%2/10Low

Next matchup — vs CLE

Sep 20, 2026

19thof 32 in RUSH TD allowed to running backs

CLE allows 0.0 RUSH TD per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Bucky Irving has gone over 0.5 RUSH TD 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 18% across the full season. CLE has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 19th-most RUSH TD of 32 teams (0.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.

Over oddsOver only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 18%.