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Tampa Bay BuccaneersBucky Irving
#7 · RB · 5' 10" · 195 lb · 12 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 10 of these 12 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Oregon
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 60.2 RUSH YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutBucky Irving isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
For the second time in as many games to open the season, Irving put together a crisp performance on the ground, with Sunday's tally spearheaded by a 38-yard run. The third-year back was also regularly involved in the passing game, but he generated next to nothing with his four catches. The Buccaneers are alarmingly 0-2 heading into a Week 3 home matchup against the Vikings next Sunday, but Irving's role as Tampa Bay's workhorse back is unquestioned approaching that critical early-season clash.
Verdict
vs 61.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 37% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line37argues against it
Consistency48neutral
Projection
56.4 RUSH YDS(×0.89 context)
L5 61.8 · L10 61.4 · med 62.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 47.0 · ceil 71.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2012 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Season12 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 8/12 | ||
| 67% | 8/12 | ||
| 58% | 7/12 | ||
| 61.5Current | 50% | 6/12 | |
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 42% | 5/12 | ||
| 42% | 5/12 |
Situational splits
Over 61.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home57%4/7Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days55%6/11Low
Next matchup — vs MIN
Sep 27, 2026
23rdof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
MIN allows 39.5 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 4 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Bucky Irving has gone over 61.5 RUSH YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. MIN has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 23rd-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (39.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 18.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.