Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bucky Irving Targets

Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Bucky Irving has gone over 2.5 TGT in 5 of his last 8 decided games (63%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Oregon
Experience: 4 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 2.9 TGT · our line

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OutBucky Irving isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

The Buccaneers became the first team since 1974 to win a game without completing a single pass, so Irving was somewhat of a one-man wrecking crew as far as the offense was concerned. The talented running back's yardage total was a career-high figure, and the performance was the third of over 100 yards for Irving already this season. The third-year back added his fifth rushing touchdown of the campaign on a four-yard run to close out the scoring with 3:47 remaining, and Irving is now up to 728 rushing yards and 5.0 yards per carry heading into a Week 9 road matchup against the Bears next Sunday night.

Verdict

vs 2.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 46% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)83supports it

Projection vs line46neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup25argues against it

Projection

2.3 TGT(×1.02 context)

L5 1.6 · L10 2.9 · med 3.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.8 · ceil 4.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 108 games

63%over

5 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–86%

Last 208 games

63%over

5 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–86%

Season8 games

63%over

5 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–86%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	75%	6/8
	75%	6/8
2.5Current	63%	5/8
	38%	3/8
	13%	1/8
	13%	1/8

Last 8 games — TGT per game vs. line 2.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 2.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home60%3/5Low

Away67%2/3Low

Days since last game

3+ days57%4/7Low

Next matchup — @ CHI

Nov 9, 2026

26thof 32 in TGT allowed to running backs

CHI allows 2.1 TGT per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 16 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 8 games, Bucky Irving has gone over 2.5 TGT 5 of 8 decided times (63%) — versus 63% across the full season. CHI has been a tough matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 26th-most TGT of 32 teams (2.1 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 63%.