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Tennessee TitansCalvin Ridley Receptions
Stats updated: Nov 16, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
Calvin Ridley has gone over 3.5 REC in 2 of his last 4 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Alabama
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Receptions · season avg 3.3 REC · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutCalvin Ridley isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Ridley had the third-most snaps among Titans wide receivers behind Carnell Tate (44) and Wan'Dale Robinson (41), though Ridley didn't end up seeing a single target from quarterback Cam Ward during Sunday's loss. Ridley restructured his contract in mid-March after playing in only seven regular-season games in 2025, but it looks like the veteran wide receiver might be an afterthought in the Titans offense. He'll look for better results in Tennessee's Week 2 clash against Philadelphia on Sept. 20.
Verdict
vs 3.5 RECReceptionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 38% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line38argues against it
Consistency24argues against it
Projection
3.0 REC(×0.92 context)
L5 3.3 · L10 3.3 · med 3.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 2.2 · ceil 4.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 54 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Last 104 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Last 204 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Season4 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)
REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 4/4 | ||
| 75% | 3/4 | ||
| 75% | 3/4 | ||
| 3.5Current | 50% | 2/4 | |
| 25% | 1/4 | ||
| 0% | 0/4 | ||
| 0% | 0/4 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home0%0/2Low
Away100%2/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days33%1/3Low
Next matchup — @ NYG
Sep 27, 2026
15thof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers
NYG allows 3.3 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
NeutralThe read
Over his last 4 games, Calvin Ridley has gone over 3.5 REC 2 of 4 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. NYG has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 15th-most REC of 32 teams (3.3 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Calvin Ridley research
Calvin Ridley — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Ridley Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Ridley Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Ridley Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.