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Cincinnati BengalsChase Brown
#30 · RB · 5' 10" · 210 lb · 16 games
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Illinois
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Rushing Yards · season avg 61.1 RUSH YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutChase Brown isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Per Ben Baby of ESPN, Brown previously expressed his desire to remain with the team that drafted him in the fifth round of the 2023 NFL Draft, and earlier this offseason the 26-year-old was in communication with the Bengals regarding a possible extension. Brown is coming off a 2025 campaign in which he gained 1,016 yards and six TDs on 232 carries in 17 regular season contests and was sixth among all NFL running backs with 437 receiving yards, while adding five aerial TDs among his 69 catches. Brown is poised to maintain steady weekly volume and fantasy production in 2026 with Samaje Perine set to reprise his role as Brown's top backup, though 2025 sixth-rounder Tahj Brooks could see an uptick in complementary touches after recording just 16 carries as a rookie.
Verdict
vs 59.5 RUSH YDSRushing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 58% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)57neutral
Projection vs line58neutral
Consistency15argues against it
Projection
70.5 RUSH YDS(×1.03 context)
L5 63.0 · L10 70.9 · med 72.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 37.0 · ceil 99.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2016 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Season16 games
50%over
8 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–72%Alternate lines — Rushing Yards (RUSH YDS)
RUSH YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 59.5Current | 50% | 8/16 | |
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 | ||
| 50% | 8/16 |
Situational splits
Over 59.5 RUSH YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home56%5/9Low
Away43%3/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days53%8/15Low
With a teammate out
How this RUSH YDS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Joe Burrow out+1.4 RUSH YDS when he sits
Without (8g)
61.8 RUSH YDS
50% over 59.5
With (8g)
60.4 RUSH YDS
50% over 59.5
Last matchup — vs CLE
Jan 4, 2026
21stof 32 in RUSH YDS allowed to running backs
CLE allows 46.9 RUSH YDS per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 34 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Chase Brown has gone over 59.5 RUSH YDS 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 50% across the full season. CLE has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 21st-most RUSH YDS of 32 teams (46.9 per game). His game-to-game RUSH YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 31.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.