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Cincinnati BengalsChase Brown Carries
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Chase Brown has gone over 12.5 CAR in 4 of his last 7 decided games (57%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Illinois
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Carries · season avg 13.4 CAR · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutChase Brown isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Brown led the Bengals in rushing with an efficient performance, and he finished with his best yardage total on the ground since Week 3. Brown's very busy day as a receiver was second only to his 11-catch, 71-yard effort against the Jaguars in Week 4, and his lost fumble, his second of the season, came early in the fourth quarter and led to a Titans touchdown. Brown is in line to fill his usual voluminous dual role in a Week 9 international matchup against the Falcons in Madrid next Sunday.
Verdict
vs 12.5 CARCarriesNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 53% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)68supports it
Projection vs line53neutral
Consistency59neutral
Matchup50neutral
Projection
12.7 CAR(×1.00 context)
L5 11.6 · L10 13.4 · med 13.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 11.2 · ceil 15.4
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Carries (CAR)
CAR over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86% | 6/7 | ||
| 86% | 6/7 | ||
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 12.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 29% | 2/7 | ||
| 29% | 2/7 | ||
| 29% | 2/7 |
Situational splits
Over 12.5 CAR by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away75%3/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%3/6Low
Next matchup — @ ATL
Nov 8, 2026
17thof 32 in CAR allowed to running backs
ATL allows 11.0 CAR per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 17 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 7 games, Chase Brown has gone over 12.5 CAR 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. ATL has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 17th-most CAR of 32 teams (11.0 per game). His game-to-game CAR have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 3.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 13.5 CAR- No-vig fair (over)
- 52.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 48.0%
Best Over
Caesars-112
-1.5% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-101
-4.5% EV
Model vs market (over)+0.7%
Our model puts the over at 52.7% vs the market's no-vig 52.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Carries (CAR)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (13.5 CAR). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.
More Chase Brown research
Chase Brown — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Brown Rushing TDs→
Rushing TDs hit rates and trends.
Brown Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Brown Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Brown Receiving Yards→
Receiving Yards hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.