Cincinnati Bengals

Chase Brown Carries

Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Chase Brown has gone over 12.5 CAR in 7 of his last 10 decided games (70%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Illinois
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksCarries · season avg 14.1 CAR · our line

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OutChase Brown isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

As his final numbers suggest, Brown worked for virtually every yard Sunday, but his contributions on the ground helped the Bengals move the chains and pull off the upset road victory. Brown couldn't get anything going as a receiver, but the fact he saw five targets is certainly encouraging from a bigger-picture fantasy view. The fourth-year back's usage through the first two games corroborates Brown's unquestioned role as the primary option in Cincinnati's ground game, as he's already seen 36 carries and 11 targets heading into a Week 3 road matchup against an always tough Steelers defense next Sunday.

Verdict

vs 12.5 CARCarries

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 76% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)66supports it

Projection vs line76supports it

Consistency53neutral

Projection

16.8 CAR(×1.13 context)

L5 15.2 · L10 15.1 · med 14.0

Consistency

Steady

floor 11.0 · ceil 17.6

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

80%over

4 over · 1 under

Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%

Last 1010 games

70%over

7 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%

Last 2017 games

53%over

9 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 31%–74%

Season17 games

53%over

9 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 31%–74%

Alternate lines — Carries (CAR)

CAR over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate CAR line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	94%	16/17
	82%	14/17
	71%	12/17
12.5Current	53%	9/17
	41%	7/17
	41%	7/17
	35%	6/17

Last 17 games — CAR per game vs. line 12.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 12.5 CAR by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home60%6/10Low

Away43%3/7Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%8/16Medium

Next matchup — @ PIT

Sep 27, 2026

5thof 32 in CAR allowed to running backs

PIT allows 15.0 CAR per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Chase Brown has gone over 12.5 CAR 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 53% across the full season. PIT has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 5th-most CAR of 32 teams (15.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game CAR have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 3.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.