Cincinnati Bengals

Chase Brown Targets

Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Chase Brown has gone over 4.5 TGT in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Illinois
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 5.4 TGT · our line

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OutChase Brown isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Per Ben Baby of ESPN, Brown previously expressed his desire to remain with the team that drafted him in the fifth round of the 2023 NFL Draft, and earlier this offseason the 26-year-old was in communication with the Bengals regarding a possible extension. Brown is coming off a 2025 campaign in which he gained 1,016 yards and six TDs on 232 carries in 17 regular season contests and was sixth among all NFL running backs with 437 receiving yards, while adding five aerial TDs among his 69 catches. Brown is poised to maintain steady weekly volume and fantasy production in 2026 with Samaje Perine set to reprise his role as Brown's top backup, though 2025 sixth-rounder Tahj Brooks could see an uptick in complementary touches after recording just 16 carries as a rookie.

Verdict

vs 4.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 48% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)67supports it

Projection vs line48neutral

Consistency12argues against it

Projection

5.4 TGT(×1.03 context)

L5 4.8 · L10 6.0 · med 5.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 3.0 · ceil 7.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2016 games

44%over

7 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 23%–67%

Season16 games

44%over

7 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 23%–67%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	16/16
	100%	16/16
	69%	11/16
4.5Current	44%	7/16
	38%	6/16
	31%	5/16
	19%	3/16

Last 16 games — TGT per game vs. line 4.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 4.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home44%4/9Low

Away43%3/7Low

Days since last game

3+ days47%7/15Low

With a teammate out

How this TGT line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Joe Burrow out+1.5 TGT when he sits

Without (8g)

6.1 TGT

50% over 4.5

With (8g)

4.6 TGT

38% over 4.5

Last matchup — vs CLE

Jan 4, 2026

20thof 32 in TGT allowed to running backs

CLE allows 2.5 TGT per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 34 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Chase Brown has gone over 4.5 TGT 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 44% across the full season. CLE has been a middling matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 20th-most TGT of 32 teams (2.5 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.