Cincinnati Bengals

Chase Brown Targets

Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Chase Brown has gone over 4.5 TGT in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Illinois
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksTargets · season avg 5.4 TGT · our line

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OutChase Brown isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

As his final line indicates, Brown unsurprisingly found running room at a premium against the Buccaneers' typically stingy front. Nevertheless, head coach Zac Taylor stuck with the ground attack throughout the afternoon, and Brown, as expected, comfortably outpaced backfield mate Samaje Perine by 11 carries. The versatile back recorded his one touchdown from five yards out with just under six minutes remaining in the second quarter, and he finished tied for the team lead in receptions while also serving as co-runner-up in targets. Brown's busy afternoon should be the norm for him this season, and he'll look to grind out some tough yards again in a Week 2 road showdown against the Texans next Sunday.

Verdict

vs 4.5 TGTTargets

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 43% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral

Projection vs line43neutral

Consistency15argues against it

Projection

5.7 TGT(×1.05 context)

L5 5.2 · L10 6.3 · med 6.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 3.0 · ceil 7.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

60%over

6 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%

Last 2017 games

47%over

8 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 26%–69%

Season17 games

47%over

8 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 26%–69%

Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)

TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate TGT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	17/17
	100%	17/17
	71%	12/17
4.5Current	47%	8/17
	41%	7/17
	29%	5/17
	18%	3/17

Last 17 games — TGT per game vs. line 4.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 4.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%5/10Low

Away43%3/7Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%8/16Medium

Next matchup — @ HOU

Sep 20, 2026

8thof 32 in TGT allowed to running backs

HOU allows 4.0 TGT per game to running backs (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 1 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Chase Brown has gone over 4.5 TGT 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 47% across the full season. HOU has been a favorable matchup for running backs this season, allowing the 8th-most TGT of 32 teams (4.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game TGT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 47%.