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Washington CommandersChig Okonkwo
#85 · TE · 6' 3" · 238 lb · 5 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Maryland
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 36.4 REC YDS · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
OutOutChig Okonkwo isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Okonkwo logged a typical 77 percent snap share in Week 8, but aside from a stellar 21-yard catch in the fourth quarter, he didn't contribute much to the Commanders offense. Overall, he's mustered just a 17-182-0 line on 24 targets in his five appearances this season, but 15 of his catches have occurred in the four full contests for Jayden Daniels in 2026, so the tight end has exhibited a rapport with the team's primary signal-caller. Okonkwo will aim for a bounceback this coming Sunday against the Rams.
Verdict
vs 32.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 50% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line50neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
35.8 REC YDS(×0.92 context)
L5 36.4 · L10 36.4 · med 32.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 13.8 · ceil 61.8
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 105 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 205 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Season5 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Situational splits
Over 32.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%1/3Low
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%2/4Low
Next matchup — vs LAR
Nov 8, 2026
22ndof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
LAR allows 22.8 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 16 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 5 games, Chig Okonkwo has gone over 32.5 REC YDS 2 of 5 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. LAR has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 22nd-most REC YDS of 32 teams (22.8 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 24.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
5 books @ 35.5 REC YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.0%
Best Over
BetRivers-113
-5.8% EV
Best Under
Caesars-111
-5.0% EV
Model vs market (over)+0.2%
Our model puts the over at 50.2% vs the market's no-vig 50.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (35.5 REC YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.