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Washington CommandersChig Okonkwo Targets
Stats updated: Jan 4, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Chig Okonkwo has gone over 5.5 TGT in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Maryland
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Targets · season avg 5.2 TGT · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutChig Okonkwo isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
With Zach Ertz (knee), who drew 72 targets in 13 regular-season contests in 2025, no longer in the mix, Okonkwo tops a Washington TE depth chart that also includes returnees John Bates and Ben Sinnott, a duo that combined for 29 targets last season. During his fourth and final campaign with the Titans, Okonkwo put up a 56/560/6 receiving line on 79 targets across 17 regular-season outings. Given that the 2022 fourth-rounder has already developed chemistry with a signal-caller who Selby notes often likes to get tight ends involved in the offense, Okonkwo is a candidate to see an uptick in production in his new locale in 2026. It's a context in which the tight feels like he "can finally just unleash," while operating as one of Daniels' key pass-catching options along with top WR Terry McLaurin.
Verdict
vs 5.5 TGTTargetsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 45% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)70supports it
Projection vs line45neutral
Consistency56neutral
Projection
6.2 TGT(×1.10 context)
L5 6.2 · L10 5.4 · med 5.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 4.0 · ceil 6.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2014 games
43%over
6 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–67%Season14 games
43%over
6 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–67%Alternate lines — Targets (TGT)
TGT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 14/14 | ||
| 86% | 12/14 | ||
| 71% | 10/14 | ||
| 5.5Current | 43% | 6/14 | |
| 14% | 2/14 | ||
| 7% | 1/14 | ||
| 0% | 0/14 |
Situational splits
Over 5.5 TGT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home57%4/7Low
Away29%2/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days46%6/13Low
With a teammate out
How this TGT line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt out+1.3 TGT when he sits
Without (7g)
5.9 TGT
57% over 5.5
With (7g)
4.6 TGT
29% over 5.5
Rachaad White out
Without (4g)
5.3 TGT
50% over 5.5
With (10g)
5.2 TGT
40% over 5.5
Last matchup — @ JAX
Jan 4, 2026
3rdof 32 in TGT allowed to tight ends
JAX allows 4.3 TGT per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 36 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Chig Okonkwo has gone over 5.5 TGT 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 43% across the full season. JAX has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 3rd-most TGT of 32 teams (4.3 per game). His game-to-game TGT have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 43%.
More Chig Okonkwo research
Chig Okonkwo — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Okonkwo Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Okonkwo Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Okonkwo Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.