Washington Commanders

Chig Okonkwo Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Chig Okonkwo has gone over 8 FS in 2 of his last 5 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Maryland
Experience: 6 seasons

Line

PrizePicksFantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 6.6 FS · PrizePicks line

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OutChig Okonkwo isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Okonkwo logged a typical 77 percent snap share in Week 8, but aside from a stellar 21-yard catch in the fourth quarter, he didn't contribute much to the Commanders offense. Overall, he's mustered just a 17-182-0 line on 24 targets in his five appearances this season, but 15 of his catches have occurred in the four full contests for Jayden Daniels in 2026, so the tight end has exhibited a rapport with the team's primary signal-caller. Okonkwo will aim for a bounceback this coming Sunday against the Rams.

Verdict

vs 8 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 66% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it

Projection vs line66supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup75supports it

Projection

6.1 FS(×0.90 context)

L5 6.6 · L10 6.6 · med 3.6

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 3.1 · ceil 10.8

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 105 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 205 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Season5 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 5 games — FS per game vs. line 8.0. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 8 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%1/3Low

Away50%1/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days50%2/4Low

Next matchup — vs LAR

Nov 8, 2026

26thof 32 in FS allowed to tight ends

LAR allows 5.2 FS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 16 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 5 games, Chig Okonkwo has gone over 8 FS 2 of 5 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. LAR has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 26th-most FS of 32 teams (5.2 per game). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 4.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.