Seattle Seahawks

Cooper Kupp Receptions

Stats updated: Feb 8, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Cooper Kupp has gone over 3.5 REC in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Eastern Washington
Experience: 11 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 3.5 REC · our line

Save this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it

OutCooper Kupp isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Smith-Njigba led the NFL with 1,793 receiving yards in 17 regular-season games last season, with Kupp finishing a distant second on the team in that category with 593 yards (on 47 catches) through 16 contests. Those marks were well off the volume/production level that made Kupp a high-rated fantasy option earlier in his career, but looking ahead, the 33-year-old should maintain enough of a complementary role behind Smith-Njigba (in a Seattle passing game that also features fellow WR Rashid Shaheed and TE AJ Barner) to merit lineup consideration in deeper fantasy formats.

Verdict

vs 3.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 45% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)75supports it

Projection vs line45neutral

Consistency17argues against it

Projection

4.3 REC(×1.10 context)

L5 3.6 · L10 3.3 · med 3.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 2.0 · ceil 5.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Last 2017 games

41%over

7 over · 10 under

Medium confidence95% CI 22%–64%

Season17 games

41%over

7 over · 10 under

Medium confidence95% CI 22%–64%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	17/17
	94%	16/17
	59%	10/17
3.5Current	41%	7/17
	29%	5/17
	18%	3/17
	6%	1/17

Last 17 games — REC per game vs. line 3.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 3.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home50%4/8Low

Away33%3/9Low

Days since last game

3+ days44%7/16Medium

With a teammate out

How this REC line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Zach Charbonnet out · Left Knee - ACL Surgery+0.6 REC when he sits

Without (3g)

4.0 REC

67% over 3.5

With (14g)

3.4 REC

36% over 3.5

Last matchup — @ NE

Feb 8, 2026

27thof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers

NE allows 3.2 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 68 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Cooper Kupp has gone over 3.5 REC 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 41% across the full season. NE has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 27th-most REC of 32 teams (3.2 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 41%.