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Seattle SeahawksCooper Kupp Receptions
Stats updated: Nov 2, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Cooper Kupp has gone over 2.5 REC in 2 of his last 5 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Eastern Washington
- Experience
- 11 seasons
Line
Receptions · season avg 2.8 REC · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutCooper Kupp isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Kupp had another low target share, but he at least made the most of his only catch by hauling in a seven-yard TD early in the fourth quarter. That score probably isn't going to be enough to inspire confidence in him in fantasy, though, given that the veteran wideout has drawn three or fewer targets in six of his eight games this season. Kupp's seven receiving yards Monday also were a season-low mark, and there simply doesn't seem to be much room for any wideout aside from Jaxon Smith-Njigba to regularly find success in Seattle's offense given Smith-Njigba's massive target share. With that said, Kupp at least will have a favorable matchup in Week 9, as he'll face an Arizona defense that has surrendered 11 receiving TDs to wideouts this season, tied for the most in the NFL.
Verdict
vs 2.5 RECReceptionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 54% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line54neutral
Consistency13argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
2.6 REC(×0.96 context)
L5 2.8 · L10 2.8 · med 2.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 1.8 · ceil 4.2
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 105 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 205 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Season5 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)
REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 5/5 | ||
| 80% | 4/5 | ||
| 2.5Current | 40% | 2/5 | |
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 20% | 1/5 | ||
| 0% | 0/5 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home0%0/3Low
Away100%2/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%2/4Low
Next matchup — @ LV
Nov 15, 2026
22ndof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers
LV allows 3.2 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 25 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 5 games, Cooper Kupp has gone over 2.5 REC 2 of 5 decided times (40%) — versus 40% across the full season. LV has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 22nd-most REC of 32 teams (3.2 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
6 books @ 2.5 REC- No-vig fair (over)
- 50.4%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 49.6%
Best Over
Caesars-108
-2.9% EV
Model vs market (over)-4.3%
Our model puts the over at 46.2% vs the market's no-vig 50.4%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receptions (REC)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (2.5 REC). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.
More Cooper Kupp research
Cooper Kupp — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Kupp Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Kupp Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Kupp Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.