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Seattle SeahawksCooper Kupp Receptions
Stats updated: Sep 9, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Cooper Kupp has gone over 2.5 REC in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Eastern Washington
- Experience
- 11 seasons
Line
Receptions · season avg 3.4 REC · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutCooper Kupp isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Kupp opened the week with a limited session Wednesday as a result of a back injury, but he was able to erase any concern about his availability for Week 2 with a full practice one day later. The wide receiver caught two of three targets for 35 yards in the team's 13-10 win over New England on Sept. 9, and he'll be working with Drew Lock at quarterback against the Cardinals on Sunday.
Verdict
vs 2.5 RECReceptionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 65% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)68supports it
Projection vs line65supports it
Consistency16argues against it
Projection
3.7 REC(×1.06 context)
L5 3.8 · L10 3.3 · med 3.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 2.0 · ceil 5.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2018 games
56%over
10 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–75%Season18 games
56%over
10 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–75%Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)
REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 18/18 | ||
| 94% | 17/18 | ||
| 2.5Current | 56% | 10/18 | |
| 39% | 7/18 | ||
| 28% | 5/18 | ||
| 17% | 3/18 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%6/9Low
Away44%4/9Low
Days since last game
3+ days59%10/17Medium
Next matchup — @ WSH
Sep 27, 2026
23rdof 32 in REC allowed to wide receivers
WSH allows 2.7 REC per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Cooper Kupp has gone over 2.5 REC 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 56% across the full season. WSH has been a tough matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 23rd-most REC of 32 teams (2.7 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
5 books @ 2.5 REC- No-vig fair (over)
- 41.8%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 58.2%
Best Over
DraftKings+126
-5.6% EV
Best Under
Hard Rock Bet-160
-5.4% EV
Model vs market (over)+22.8%
Our model puts the over at 64.5% vs the market's no-vig 41.8%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receptions (REC)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (2.5 REC). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 56%.
More Cooper Kupp research
Cooper Kupp — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Kupp Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Kupp Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Kupp Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.