Seattle Seahawks

Cooper Kupp Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Feb 8, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Cooper Kupp has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 2 of his last 10 decided games (20%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Eastern Washington
Experience: 11 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.2 REC TD · our line

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OutCooper Kupp isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Smith-Njigba led the NFL with 1,793 receiving yards in 17 regular-season games last season, with Kupp finishing a distant second on the team in that category with 593 yards (on 47 catches) through 16 contests. Those marks were well off the volume/production level that made Kupp a high-rated fantasy option earlier in his career, but looking ahead, the 33-year-old should maintain enough of a complementary role behind Smith-Njigba (in a Seattle passing game that also features fellow WR Rashid Shaheed and TE AJ Barner) to merit lineup consideration in deeper fantasy formats.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 80% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line80supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.2 REC TD(×1.10 context)

L5 0.2 · L10 0.2 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

20%over

2 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%

Last 2017 games

18%over

3 over · 14 under

Medium confidence95% CI 6%–41%

Season17 games

18%over

3 over · 14 under

Medium confidence95% CI 6%–41%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	18%	3/17
	0%	0/17
	0%	0/17
	0%	0/17

Last 17 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home13%1/8Medium

Away22%2/9Low

Days since last game

3+ days19%3/16Medium

With a teammate out

How this REC TD line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Zach Charbonnet out · Left Knee - ACL Surgery+0.2 REC TD when he sits

Without (3g)

0.3 REC TD

33% over 0.5

With (14g)

0.1 REC TD

14% over 0.5

Last matchup — @ NE

Feb 8, 2026

16thof 32 in REC TD allowed to wide receivers

NE allows 0.3 REC TD per game to wide receivers (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 68 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Cooper Kupp has gone over 0.5 REC TD 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 18% across the full season. NE has been a middling matchup for wide receivers this season, allowing the 16th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.3 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 18%.