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Philadelphia EaglesDallas Goedert
#88 · TE · 6' 5" · 256 lb · 11 games
Stats updated: Jan 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- South Dakota State
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Receiving Yards · season avg 44.8 REC YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDallas Goedert isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Goedert re-signed with Philadelphia via a one-year, $7 million deal this offseason and is coming off a productive 2025 campaign in which he drew 82 targets across 15 regular-season games. The veteran tight end finished with 591 receiving yards and a career-high 11 touchdowns, emerging as one of the team's top red-zone threats. Alongside DeVonta Smith and rookie first-round pick Makai Lemon (undisclosed), Goedert projects as one of the primary beneficiaries of Brown's departure. Dontayvion Wicks, Hollywood Brown and Elijah Moore are also expected to compete for a larger share of the passing game.
Verdict
vs 36.5 REC YDSReceiving YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 55% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)60neutral
Projection vs line55neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
40.8 REC YDS(×0.98 context)
L5 43.2 · L10 44.9 · med 35.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 24.0 · ceil 70.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2011 games
55%over
6 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%Season11 games
55%over
6 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 28%–79%Alternate lines — Receiving Yards (REC YDS)
REC YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55% | 6/11 | ||
| 55% | 6/11 | ||
| 55% | 6/11 | ||
| 36.5Current | 55% | 6/11 | |
| 45% | 5/11 | ||
| 45% | 5/11 | ||
| 45% | 5/11 |
Situational splits
Over 36.5 REC YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%2/6Low
Away80%4/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%5/10Low
Last matchup — vs SF
Jan 11, 2026
17thof 32 in REC YDS allowed to tight ends
SF allows 26.3 REC YDS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 38 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Dallas Goedert has gone over 36.5 REC YDS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 55% across the full season. SF has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 17th-most REC YDS of 32 teams (26.3 per game). His game-to-game REC YDS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 28.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 55%.