Philadelphia Eagles

Dallas Goedert Receptions

Stats updated: Jan 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Dallas Goedert has gone over 4.5 REC in 3 of his last 10 decided games (30%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: South Dakota State
Experience: 10 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceptions · season avg 4.7 REC · our line

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OutDallas Goedert isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Goedert re-signed with Philadelphia via a one-year, $7 million deal this offseason and is coming off a productive 2025 campaign in which he drew 82 targets across 15 regular-season games. The veteran tight end finished with 591 receiving yards and a career-high 11 touchdowns, emerging as one of the team's top red-zone threats. Alongside DeVonta Smith and rookie first-round pick Makai Lemon (undisclosed), Goedert projects as one of the primary beneficiaries of Brown's departure. Dontayvion Wicks, Hollywood Brown and Elijah Moore are also expected to compete for a larger share of the passing game.

Verdict

vs 4.5 RECReceptions

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 59% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)92supports it

Projection vs line59neutral

Consistency19argues against it

Projection

4.4 REC(×0.98 context)

L5 4.6 · L10 4.5 · med 4.0

Consistency

Variable

floor 3.0 · ceil 7.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

30%over

3 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%

Last 2011 games

36%over

4 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 15%–65%

Season11 games

36%over

4 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 15%–65%

Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)

REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	100%	11/11
	82%	9/11
	64%	7/11
4.5Current	36%	4/11
	36%	4/11
	27%	3/11
	18%	2/11

Last 11 games — REC per game vs. line 4.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 4.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%2/6Low

Away40%2/5Low

Days since last game

3+ days30%3/10Low

Last matchup — vs SF

Jan 11, 2026

13thof 32 in REC allowed to tight ends

SF allows 2.7 REC per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 38 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Dallas Goedert has gone over 4.5 REC 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 36% across the full season. SF has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 13th-most REC of 32 teams (2.7 per game). His game-to-game REC have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 36%.