Philadelphia Eagles

Dallas Goedert Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Dallas Goedert has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 1 of his last 5 decided games (20%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: South Dakota State
Experience: 10 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.4 REC TD · our line

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OutDallas Goedert isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Goedert has 15 catches for 139 receiving yards in three games since Tanner McKee took over as Philadelphia's starting QB, but the veteran TE has now gone five consecutive appearances without a TD after scoring 13 times in the span of 15 regular-season appearances through Week 1 of this season. Goedert had a ball bounce off his hands for an interception in the second half, but the play was negated by a defensive penalty, removing what would have been the lone blemish on Goedert's otherwise clean, though unimpressive, stat sheet. He'll try to snap his touchdown drought in Week 9 against the Giants.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 85% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line85supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup75supports it

Projection

0.3 REC TD(×0.87 context)

L5 0.4 · L10 0.4 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.4

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 105 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 205 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Season5 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	20%	1/5
	20%	1/5
	0%	0/5
	0%	0/5

Last 5 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home33%1/3Low

Away0%0/2Low

Days since last game

3+ days0%0/4Low

Next matchup — vs NYG

Nov 8, 2026

25thof 32 in REC TD allowed to tight ends

NYG allows 0.1 REC TD per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 18 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 5 games, Dallas Goedert has gone over 0.5 REC TD 1 of 5 decided times (20%) — versus 20% across the full season. NYG has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 25th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.1 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 20%.