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Buffalo BillsDalton Kincaid Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)
Stats updated: Sep 17, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Dalton Kincaid has gone over 14.5 FS in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Utah
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 13.5 FS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDalton Kincaid isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The star tight end put together a fitting encore to his season-opening 5-130-0 line against the Texans, setting the pace for the Bills in receptions, receiving yards and targets on the night. Kincaid repeatedly got into the second level of the Lions defense during the high-scoring victory -- including on his 16-yard scoring grab late in the first half -- and his particularly elevated workload was partly the byproduct of DJ Moore's exit with a shoulder injury shortly before the tight end's touchdown catch. Kincaid will remain a vital component of the Bills' red-hot air attack in a Week 3 home showdown against the Chargers on Sunday, Sept. 27.
Verdict
vs 14.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 29% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)53neutral
Projection vs line29argues against it
Consistency24argues against it
Projection
18.7 FS(×1.19 context)
L5 16.1 · L10 13.2 · med 12.9
Consistency
Variable
floor 7.2 · ceil 18.9
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2014 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Season14 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)
FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64% | 9/14 | ||
| 57% | 8/14 | ||
| 57% | 8/14 | ||
| 14.5Current | 50% | 7/14 | |
| 43% | 6/14 | ||
| 43% | 6/14 | ||
| 36% | 5/14 |
Situational splits
Over 14.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home71%5/7Low
Away29%2/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days46%6/13Low
Next matchup — vs LAC
Sep 27, 2026
5thof 32 in FS allowed to tight ends
LAC allows 10.6 FS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 3 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Dalton Kincaid has gone over 14.5 FS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 50% across the full season. LAC has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 5th-most FS of 32 teams (10.6 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 6.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.
More Dalton Kincaid research
Dalton Kincaid — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Kincaid Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Kincaid Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Kincaid Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.