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Buffalo BillsDalton Kincaid Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Dalton Kincaid has gone over 17.5 FS in 3 of his last 5 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Utah
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 14.7 FS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDalton Kincaid isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Kincaid was questionable coming into the game due to a chest injury, but he managed to suit up and finished as the team leader in receiving yards. He made a 40-yard catch early in the fourth quarter and capped the following drive with a 23-yard touchdown catch. The streaky TE has returned to form with 11 catches for 124 yards and a touchdown over the past two games. Kincaid had just four catches for 52 yards over his previous three outings after starting the season with 12 catches for 225 yards and a TD through two games. Next up for Kincaid and the Bills is a Week 9 MNF clash with Minnesota's elite defense.
Verdict
vs 17.5 FSFantasy Score (PrizePicks)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 32% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line32argues against it
Consistency25argues against it
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
13.1 FS(×0.90 context)
L5 14.7 · L10 14.7 · med 18.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 9.4 · ceil 19.4
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 105 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 205 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Season5 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Alternate lines — Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)
FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 60% | 3/5 | ||
| 17.5Current | 60% | 3/5 | |
| 40% | 2/5 | ||
| 20% | 1/5 | ||
| 20% | 1/5 |
Situational splits
Over 17.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
3+ days50%2/4Low
Next matchup — @ MIN
Nov 10, 2026
32ndof 32 in FS allowed to tight ends
MIN allows 3.3 FS per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 15 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 5 games, Dalton Kincaid has gone over 17.5 FS 3 of 5 decided times (60%) — versus 60% across the full season. MIN has been a tough matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 32nd-most FS of 32 teams (3.3 per game). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 6.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 60%.
More Dalton Kincaid research
Dalton Kincaid — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Kincaid Receptions→
Receptions hit rates and trends.
Kincaid Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Kincaid Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.