Buffalo Bills

Dalton Kincaid Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Jan 17, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Dalton Kincaid has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Utah
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.5 REC TD · our line

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OutDalton Kincaid isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

After practice, Kincaid told Getzenberg that he didn't suffer an injury but needed a few minutes to recover after taking a knee to the "family jewels." Kincaid shouldn't face any limitations during future practices and will look to take on a greater role in the Buffalo passing game in 2026 if health prevails. The 26-year-old flashed explosive playmaking ability when available last season, leading all qualified tight ends with an average of 14.6 yards per reception.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 46% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral

Projection vs line46neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.6 REC TD(×0.97 context)

L5 0.6 · L10 0.5 · med 0.5

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2012 games

50%over

6 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%

Season12 games

50%over

6 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	50%	6/12
	0%	0/12
	0%	0/12
	0%	0/12

Last 12 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home67%4/6Low

Away33%2/6Low

Days since last game

3+ days45%5/11Low

Last matchup — @ DEN

Jan 17, 2026

15thof 32 in REC TD allowed to tight ends

DEN allows 0.2 REC TD per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 35 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Dalton Kincaid has gone over 0.5 REC TD 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. DEN has been a middling matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 15th-most REC TD of 32 teams (0.2 per game). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.