Buffalo Bills

Dalton Kincaid Receiving TDs

Stats updated: Sep 13, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Dalton Kincaid has gone over 0.5 REC TD in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.

Draft: Undrafted
College: Utah
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksReceiving TDs · season avg 0.5 REC TD · our line

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OutDalton Kincaid isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Kincaid did most of his damage late, recording catches of 40 and 35 yards in the fourth quarter. He cleared offseason addition DJ Moore by 30 receiving yards for the team lead while tying Khalil Shakir for second in targets behind Moore's eight. Kincaid played through a knee injury last season but looked healthy in this season opener while setting a new single-game career high in receiving yards. He'll try to keep rolling in Thursday's Week 2 home game against the Lions.

Verdict

vs 0.5 REC TDReceiving TDs

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 59% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it

Projection vs line59neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.5 REC TD(×0.99 context)

L5 0.4 · L10 0.4 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

small sample

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

40%over

4 over · 6 under

Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%

Last 2013 games

46%over

6 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–71%

Season13 games

46%over

6 over · 7 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–71%

Alternate lines — Receiving TDs (REC TD)

REC TD over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate REC TD line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	46%	6/13
	0%	0/13
	0%	0/13
	0%	0/13

Last 13 games — REC TD per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 REC TD by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home67%4/6Low

Away29%2/7Low

Days since last game

3+ days42%5/12Low

Next matchup — vs DET

Sep 18, 2026

2ndof 31 in REC TD allowed to tight ends

DET allows 1.0 REC TD per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Dalton Kincaid has gone over 0.5 REC TD 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 46% across the full season. DET has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 2nd-most REC TD of 31 teams (1.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC TD have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 46%.