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Buffalo BillsDalton Kincaid Receptions
Stats updated: Sep 17, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Dalton Kincaid has gone over 4.5 REC in 4 of his last 10 decided games (40%), measured against our typical-game line.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Utah
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Line
Receptions · season avg 4.2 REC · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDalton Kincaid isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
The star tight end put together a fitting encore to his season-opening 5-130-0 line against the Texans, setting the pace for the Bills in receptions, receiving yards and targets on the night. Kincaid repeatedly got into the second level of the Lions defense during the high-scoring victory -- including on his 16-yard scoring grab late in the first half -- and his particularly elevated workload was partly the byproduct of DJ Moore's exit with a shoulder injury shortly before the tight end's touchdown catch. Kincaid will remain a vital component of the Bills' red-hot air attack in a Week 3 home showdown against the Chargers on Sunday, Sept. 27.
Verdict
vs 4.5 RECReceptionsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 37% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)70supports it
Projection vs line37argues against it
Consistency35argues against it
Projection
5.7 REC(×1.19 context)
L5 4.8 · L10 4.0 · med 3.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.0 · ceil 6.0
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2014 games
43%over
6 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–67%Season14 games
43%over
6 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–67%Alternate lines — Receptions (REC)
REC over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93% | 13/14 | ||
| 86% | 12/14 | ||
| 64% | 9/14 | ||
| 4.5Current | 43% | 6/14 | |
| 29% | 4/14 | ||
| 7% | 1/14 | ||
| 0% | 0/14 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 REC by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home57%4/7Low
Away29%2/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days46%6/13Low
Next matchup — vs LAC
Sep 27, 2026
1stof 32 in REC allowed to tight ends
LAC allows 9.0 REC per game to tight ends (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 1 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Dalton Kincaid has gone over 4.5 REC 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 43% across the full season. LAC has been a favorable matchup for tight ends this season, allowing the 1st-most REC of 32 teams (9.0 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game REC have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 4.5 REC- No-vig fair (over)
- 41.6%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 58.4%
Best Over
Caesars+133
-3.0% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-162
-5.6% EV
Model vs market (over)+21.0%
Our model puts the over at 62.6% vs the market's no-vig 41.6%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Receptions (REC)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (4.5 REC). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 43%.
More Dalton Kincaid research
Dalton Kincaid — full profile→
Every stat, splits, chart, and matchup.
Kincaid Targets→
Targets hit rates and trends.
Kincaid Receiving TDs→
Receiving TDs hit rates and trends.
Kincaid Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)→
Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) hit rates and trends.
Defense vs Position→
Which opponents inflate or suppress this prop.
NFL Heat Check→
The strongest reads across the league.
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.