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Indianapolis ColtsDaniel Jones
#17 · QB · 6' 5" · 230 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Duke
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 192.8 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDaniel Jones isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
After a 42-7 loss to the Jaguars on Sunday during which Jones was benched in favor of Anthony Richardson in the fourth quarter, Steichen suggested that he would evaluate every position, including quarterback. While some changes could still be afoot for the 2-6 Colts, Steichen will apparently stand pat at center with Jones, at least for one more week. After a promising first season in Indianapolis was cut short by a torn Achilles, Jones has been a major disappointment since reaching a two-year, $88 million extension with the Colts in March. Through eight games, Jones ranks 29th among 30 qualified quarterbacks in QBR (39.6) and is tied with the Chargers' Justin Herbert for the NFL lead with 12 turnovers (nine interceptions, three lost fumbles).
Verdict
vs 188.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 59% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)51neutral
Projection vs line59neutral
Consistency51neutral
Matchup100supports it
Projection
173.6 PASS YDS(×0.94 context)
L5 186.2 · L10 192.8 · med 188.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 143.4 · ceil 254.2
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 108 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Last 208 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Season8 games
50%over
4 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 22%–78%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 188.5Current | 50% | 4/8 | |
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 | ||
| 50% | 4/8 |
Situational splits
Over 188.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home67%2/3Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days57%4/7Low
Next matchup — vs DAL
Nov 8, 2026
27thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
DAL allows 195.3 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 10 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 8 games, Daniel Jones has gone over 188.5 PASS YDS 4 of 8 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. DAL has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 27th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (195.3 per game). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 57.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
2 books @ 201.5 PASS YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 51.0%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 49.0%
Best Over
FanDuel-114
-4.2% EV
Best Under
BetRivers-110
-6.5% EV
Model vs market (over)-10.2%
Our model puts the over at 40.9% vs the market's no-vig 51.0%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (202.5 PASS YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.