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Indianapolis ColtsDaniel Jones
#17 · QB · 6' 5" · 230 lb · 12 games
Stats updated: Dec 7, 2025 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Duke
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 253.4 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDaniel Jones isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Jones declared himself fully healthy for the start of training camp and is now showing that he won't have major limitations. He's well on his way to making the Week 1 start against Baltimore, though there is still some risk that the lengthy rehab process has an impact on his performance/mobility.
Verdict
vs 258.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 51% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)55neutral
Projection vs line51neutral
Consistency70supports it
Projection
249.8 PASS YDS(×1.04 context)
L5 250.2 · L10 245.3 · med 241.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 212.0 · ceil 284.8
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2012 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Season12 games
50%over
6 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–75%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 258.5Current | 50% | 6/12 | |
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 50% | 6/12 | ||
| 50% | 6/12 |
Situational splits
Over 258.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home43%3/7Low
Away60%3/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days45%5/11Low
Last matchup — vs HOU
Nov 30, 2025
22ndof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
HOU allows 199.7 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 19 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Daniel Jones has gone over 258.5 PASS YDS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 50% across the full season. HOU has been a tough matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 22nd-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (199.7 per game). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 46.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.