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Indianapolis ColtsDaniel Jones
#17 · QB · 6' 5" · 230 lb · 14 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 12 of these 14 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Sep 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Draft
- Undrafted
- College
- Duke
- Experience
- 9 seasons
Line
Passing Yards · season avg 244.1 PASS YDS · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutDaniel Jones isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
Jones orchestrated a touchdown drive on the opening possession for a second consecutive game, capping this one with a one-yard touchdown pass to Tyler Warren. Leading 2025 Colts receiver Alec Pierce (heel) exited the game in the first half, but Jonathan Taylor kept the offense churning with a pair of rushing touchdowns. Jones connected with Laquon Treadwell for a 48-yard pass in overtime, but that drive stalled in the red zone and resulted in a game-tying field goal, which was sandwiched between a pair of Chiefs field goals in overtime to drop the Colts to 0-2 ahead of a Week 3 home game against the AFC South rival Texans.
Verdict
vs 241.5 PASS YDSPassing YardsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 78% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)56neutral
Projection vs line78supports it
Consistency66supports it
Projection
191.7 PASS YDS(×0.86 context)
L5 202.6 · L10 233.9 · med 212.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 206.4 · ceil 278.4
Matchup
NR
small sample
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2014 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Season14 games
50%over
7 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 27%–73%Alternate lines — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
PASS YDS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 241.5Current | 50% | 7/14 | |
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 | ||
| 50% | 7/14 |
Situational splits
Over 241.5 PASS YDS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%4/8Low
Away50%3/6Low
Days since last game
3+ days46%6/13Low
Next matchup — vs HOU
Sep 27, 2026
5thof 32 in PASS YDS allowed to quarterbacks
HOU allows 270.5 PASS YDS per game to quarterbacks (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 2 player-gameslow sample — interpret with caution
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Daniel Jones has gone over 241.5 PASS YDS 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 50% across the full season. HOU has been a favorable matchup for quarterbacks this season, allowing the 5th-most PASS YDS of 32 teams (270.5 per game) (small sample — read with caution). His game-to-game PASS YDS have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 49.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
3 books @ 217.5 PASS YDS- No-vig fair (over)
- 49.9%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 50.1%
Best Over
DraftKings-111
-5.1% EV
Best Under
DraftKings-113
-5.6% EV
Model vs market (over)-27.5%
Our model puts the over at 22.4% vs the market's no-vig 49.9%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Passing Yards (PASS YDS)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (217.5 PASS YDS). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.